Estimating the incubation period of hand, foot and mouth disease for children in different age groups.
ABSTRACT: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a childhood disease causing large outbreaks frequently in Asia and occasionally in Europe and the US. The incubation period of HFMD was typically described as about 3-7 days but empirical evidence is lacking. In this study, we estimated the incubation period of HFMD from school outbreaks in Hong Kong, utilizing information on symptom onset and sick absence dates of students diagnosed with HFMD. A total of 99 HFMD cases from 12 schools were selected for analysis. We fitted parametric models accounting for interval censoring. Based on the best-fitted distributions, the estimated median incubation periods were 4.4 (95% CI 3.8-5.1) days, 4.7 (95% CI 4.5-5.1) days and 5.7 (95% CI 4.6-7.0) days for children in kindergartens, primary schools and secondary schools respectively. From the fitted distribution, the estimated incubation periods can be longer than 10 days for 8.8% and 23.2% of the HFMD cases in kindergarten and secondary schools respectively. Our results show that the incubation period of HFMD for secondary schools students can be longer than the ranges commonly described. An extended period of enhanced personal hygiene practice and disinfection of the environment may be needed to control outbreaks.
Project description:Singapore implements a school closure policy for institutional hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks, but there is a lack of empirical evidence on the effect of closure on HFMD transmission. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 197,207 cases of HFMD over the period 2003-2012 at the national level and of 57,502 cases in 10,080 institutional outbreaks over the period 2011-2016 in Singapore. The effects of school closure due to 1) institutional outbreaks, 2) public holidays, and 3) school vacations were assessed using a Bayesian time series modeling approach. School closure was associated with a reduction in HFMD transmission rate. During public holidays, average numbers of secondary cases having onset the week after dropped by 53% (95% credible interval 44-62%), and during school vacations, the number of secondary cases dropped by 7% (95% credible interval 3-10%). Schools being temporarily closed in response to an institutional outbreak reduced the average number of new cases by 1,204 (95% credible interval 1,140-1,297). Despite the positive effect in reducing transmission, the effect of school closure is relatively small and may not justify the routine use of this measure.
Project description:BackgroundThe natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic.AimOur objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period.MethodsWe estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period.ResultsThe median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9?7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2?5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2?5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases?<?18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p?=?0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p?<?0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission.ConclusionThe high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.
Project description:A novel avian influenza virus, influenza A(H7N9), emerged in China in early 2013 and caused severe disease in humans, with infections occurring most frequently after recent exposure to live poultry. The distribution of A(H7N9) incubation periods is of interest to epidemiologists and public health officials, but estimation of the distribution is complicated by interval censoring of exposures. Imputation of the midpoint of intervals was used in some early studies, resulting in estimated mean incubation times of approximately 5 days. In this study, we estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A(H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infection from mainland China. A nonparametric model (Turnbull) and several parametric models accounting for the interval censoring in some exposures were fitted to the data. For the best-fitting parametric model (Weibull), the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.7) and the variance was 2.9 days; results were very similar for the nonparametric Turnbull estimate. Under the Weibull model, the 95th percentile of the incubation period distribution was 6.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.9, 7.1). The midpoint approximation for interval-censored exposures led to overestimation of the mean incubation period. Public health observation of potentially exposed persons for 7 days after exposure would be appropriate.
Project description:Dengue viruses are major contributors to illness and death globally. Here we analyze the extrinsic and intrinsic incubation periods (EIP and IIP), in the mosquito and human, respectively. We identified 146 EIP observations from 8 studies and 204 IIP observations from 35 studies. These data were fitted with censored Bayesian time-to-event models. The best-fitting temperature-dependent EIP model estimated that 95% of EIPs are between 5 and 33 days at 25°C, and 2 and 15 days at 30°C, with means of 15 and 6.5 days, respectively. The mean IIP estimate was 5.9 days, with 95% expected between days 3 and 10. Differences between serotypes were not identified for either incubation period. These incubation period models should be useful in clinical diagnosis, outbreak investigation, prevention and control efforts, and mathematical modeling of dengue virus transmission.
Project description:Recent large cholera outbreaks highlight the need for improved understanding of the pathogenesis and epidemiology of cholera. The incubation period of cholera has important implications for clinical and public health decision-making, yet statements of the incubation period of cholera are often imprecise. Here we characterize the distribution of cholera's incubation period.We conducted a systematic review of the literature for statements of the incubation period of cholera and data that might aid in its estimation. We extracted individual-level data, parametrically estimated the distribution of toxigenic cholera's incubation period, and evaluated evidence for differences between strains.The incubation period did not differ by a clinically significant margin between strains (except O1 El Tor Ogawa). We estimate the median incubation period of toxigenic cholera to be 1.4 days (95% CI, 1.3-1.6). Five percent of cholera cases will develop symptoms by 0.5 days (95% CI 0.4-0.5), and 95% by 4.4 days (95% CI 3.9-5.0) after infection.We recommend that cholera investigations use a recall period of at least five days to capture relevant exposures; significantly longer than recent risk factor studies from the Haitian epidemic. This characterization of cholera's incubation period can help improve clinical and public health practice and advance epidemiologic research.
Project description:We estimated the incubation period and serial interval for human-to-human-transmitted avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection using case-patient clusters from epidemics in China during 2013-2017. The median incubation period was 4 days and serial interval 9 days. China's 10-day monitoring period for close contacts of case-patients should detect most secondary infections.
Project description:To clarify the chronologic genetic diversity of coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) strains associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in a restricted area and their genetic relation with those isolated in other areas, we investigated the genetic diversity of the 129 CV-A16 strains associated with HFMD epidemics in Fukushima, Japan, from 1983 to 2003, and compared their genetic relation to 49 CV-A16 strains isolated in other areas of Japan and in China by using phylogenetic analysis based on the VP4 sequences. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the CV-A16 strains isolated in Fukushima from 1983 to 2003 demonstrated three distinct genetically divergent clusters related to HFMD epidemics that occurred from 1984 to 1994 (including the 1985 and 1991 outbreaks), HFMD epidemics from 1987 to 1998 (including the 1988 and 1998 outbreaks), and HFMD epidemics from 1995 to 2003 (including the 1995 and 2002 outbreaks). CV-A16 strains isolated during each period in Fukushima formed a single cluster with those isolated during essentially the same time period in other areas of Japan and in China. Our results demonstrated that prevalent CV-A16 strains causing HFMD in Fukushima, Japan, genetically changed twice during 21 epidemics, and changes were also observed in the CV-A16 strains causing HFMD epidemics in other areas. We concluded that repeated outbreaks of CV-A16-related HFMD in Japan were caused, in part, by the introduction of genetically changed CV-A16 strains, which might be transmitted overseas.
Project description:A novel coronavirus disease, designated as COVID-19, has become a pandemic worldwide. This study aims to estimate the incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19. We collected contact tracing data in a municipality in Hubei province during a full outbreak period. The date of infection and infector-infectee pairs were inferred from the history of travel in Wuhan or exposed to confirmed cases. The incubation periods and serial intervals were estimated using parametric accelerated failure time models, accounting for interval censoring of the exposures. Our estimated median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5.4 days (bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.8-6.0), and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles are 1 and 15 days, respectively; while the estimated serial interval of COVID-19 falls within the range of -4 to 13 days with 95% confidence and has a median of 4.6 days (95% CI 3.7-5.5). Ninety-five per cent of symptomatic cases showed symptoms by 13.7 days (95% CI 12.5-14.9). The incubation periods and serial intervals were not significantly different between male and female, and among age groups. Our results suggest a considerable proportion of secondary transmission occurred prior to symptom onset. And the current practice of 14-day quarantine period in many regions is reasonable.
Project description:BACKGROUND:An outbreak of respiratory disease associated with adenovirus type 7 occurred in a boot camp in China and was characterized by many cases, severe symptoms, and intrapulmonary infection in many patients. METHODS:We implemented a series of comprehensive preventive and control measures. We analyzed the incubation period and generation time by using the maximum likelihood method, assessed the symptom period and hospitalization duration using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated the basic reproductive number and dormitory transmission rate by using established methods. RESULTS:The epidemic lasted for 30 days, and 375 individuals were affected. Overall, 109 patients were hospitalized, and 266 individuals were isolated and treated. The median incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.0 to 5.4 days). The median generation time was 7.3 days (95% CI: 7.1 to 7.6 days). The median symptom period was 6 days (95% CI: 6 to 7 days). The median hospitalization duration was 9 days (95% CI: 9 to 11 days). The basic reproductive number was 5.1 (95% CI: 4.6 to 5.6), and the dormitory transmission rate was 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12 to 0.18). CONCLUSION:Patients in the early stage of the epidemic were treated as having a regular cold and were not isolated; therefore, the virus continued to be transmitted to other susceptible individuals.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Previous longitudinal studies indicate that physical activity (PA) significantly declines from primary-to secondary school, and report both changes in individual and environmental determinants of PA. In order to understand this transition and to prevent this negative trend, it is important to gather contextually rich data on possible mechanisms that drive this decline. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate changes of PA patterns in transition between primary and secondary school, and to add domain-specific insights of how, where, and when these changes occur. METHODS:In total, 175 children participated in a 7-day accelerometer- and Global Positioning System (GPS) protocol at their last year of primary and their first year of secondary school. GPS data-points were overlaid with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Based on the GPS locations of individual data-points, we identified child's PA at home, school, local sports grounds, shopping centers, and other locations. Also, trips in active and passive transport were identified according to previously validated GPS speed-algorithms. Longitudinal multi-level linear mixed models were fitted adjusting for age, gender, meteorological circumstances, and the nested structure of days within children and children within schools. Outcome measures were minutes spent in light PA and moderate-to-vigorous PA, specified for the time-segments before school, during school, after school and weekend days. RESULTS:Total PA significantly declined from primary to secondary school. Although transport-related PA increased before- and during school, decreases were found for especially afterschool time spent at sports grounds and transport-related PA during weekends. CONCLUSIONS:This is the first study that demonstrated longitudinal changes of context- and domain-specific PA patterns in transition between primary and secondary school, based on device-assessed PA. Given the importance of this transition-period for the development of long-term PA patterns, results from this study warrant the development of evidence-based PA programs in this transition period, while acknowledging the integrative role of schools, parents, and afterschool sports providers. More specifically, the results underline the need to increase children's PA levels in primary schools, promote afterschool PA at secondary schools, and to prevent the drop-out in sports participation at secondary schools.