Novel microsimulation model of tobacco use behaviours and outcomes: calibration and validation in a US population.
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Simulation models can project effects of tobacco use and cessation and inform tobacco control policies. Most existing tobacco models do not explicitly include relapse, a key component of the natural history of tobacco use. Our objective was to develop, calibrate and validate a novel individual-level microsimulation model that would explicitly include smoking relapse and project cigarette smoking behaviours and associated mortality risks. METHODS:We developed the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse. Simulated individuals face tobacco use-stratified mortality risks. For US women and men, we conducted cross-validation with a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) model. We then incorporated smoking relapse and calibrated cessation rates to reflect the difference between a transient quit attempt and sustained abstinence. We performed external validation with the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the linked National Death Index. Comparisons were based on root-mean-square error (RMSE). RESULTS:In cross-validation, STOP-generated projections of current/former/never smoking prevalence fit CISNET-projected data well (coefficient of variation (CV)-RMSE?15%). After incorporating smoking relapse, multiplying the CISNET-reported cessation rates for women/men by 7.75/7.25, to reflect the ratio of quit attempts to sustained abstinence, resulted in the best approximation to CISNET-reported smoking prevalence (CV-RMSE 2%/3%). In external validation using these new multipliers, STOP-generated cumulative mortality curves for 20-year-old current smokers and never smokers each had CV-RMSE ?1% compared with NHIS. In simulating those surveyed by NHIS in 1997, the STOP-projected prevalence of current/former/never smokers annually (1998-2009) was similar to that reported by NHIS (CV-RMSE 12%). CONCLUSIONS:The STOP model, with relapse included, performed well when validated to US smoking prevalence and mortality. STOP provides a flexible framework for policy-relevant analysis of tobacco and nicotine product use.
Project description:AIMS:Switching from smoking to using nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) or heated tobacco products can reduce tobacco-related health risks. However, not all smokers in Great Britain have tried these products. This study aimed to identify and describe smokers who have never tried alternative nicotine products. METHODS:We analysed cross-sectional survey data of smokers (n = 1777) from a representative adult sample from Great Britain. The online survey was run in March 2019. The proportion of smokers who had never used alternative nicotine products was measured. A multivariate logistic regression assessed the association between never having used alternative nicotine products and sociodemographic and smoking characteristics and motivation to stop smoking. RESULTS:One in four smokers (27.8%, 95% CI 25.8-29.9%) had never tried NRT, e-cigarettes or heated tobacco products. These smokers were more commonly from Black and Minority than White ethnic groups (AOR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.02-2.31), were more likely to smoke up to 10 versus more cigarettes per day (AOR = 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.03) and to report low versus moderate or high motivation to stop smoking (AOR = 1.79; 95% CI 1.20-2.74). CONCLUSION:Light smokers, those unmotivated to stop and smokers from Black and Minority ethnic groups are less likely to have ever tried alternative nicotine products. Different approaches are needed to facilitate harm reduction and smoking cessation among these groups of smokers.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Despite increasing use of cannabis, it is unclear how cannabis use is related to cigarette transitions. This study examined cannabis use and smoking initiation, persistence, and relapse over 1 year among a nationally representative sample of US adults. METHODS:Data were from US adults (?18 years) who completed two waves of longitudinal data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (Wave 1, 2013-2014; Wave 2, 2014-2015; n = 26 341). Logistic regression models were used to calculate the risk of Wave 2 incident smoking among Wave 1 never-smokers, smoking cessation among Wave 1 smokers, and smoking relapse among Wave 1 former smokers by Wave 1 cannabis use. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, and education. RESULTS:Among Wave 1 never-smokers, cannabis use was associated with increased odds of initiation of nondaily (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 5.50, 95% confidence limits [CL] = 4.02-7.55) and daily cigarette smoking (AOR = 6.70, 95% CL = 4.75-9.46) 1 year later. Among Wave 1 daily smokers, cannabis use was associated with reduced odds of smoking cessation (AOR = 0.36, 95% CL = 0.20-0.65). Among Wave 1 former smokers, cannabis use was associated with increased odds of relapse to daily and nondaily cigarette smoking (daily AOR = 1.90, 95% CL = 1.11-3.26; nondaily AOR = 2.33, 95% CL = 1.61-3.39). CONCLUSIONS:Cannabis use was associated with increased cigarette smoking initiation, decreased smoking cessation, and increased smoking relapse among adults in the United States. Increased public education about the relationship between cannabis use and cigarette smoking transitions may be needed as cannabis use becomes more common among US adults. IMPLICATIONS:As cannabis use increases in the United States and other countries, an evaluation of the relationships of cannabis use to other health-related behaviors (eg, cigarette smoking) is needed to understand the population-level impact of legalization. Little is known about associations between cannabis use and cigarette smoking transitions (1) using recent longitudinal data, (2) among adults, and (3) examining transitions other than smoking initiation (eg, smoking relapse). Our results suggest that among US adults, cannabis use was associated with increased cigarette smoking initiation among never-smokers, decreased cigarette smoking cessation among current smokers, and increased cigarette smoking relapse among former smokers.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Data on electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use among health professional students, who can play a central role in promoting healthy habits and smoking cessation, are sparse. Moreover, the association between e-cigarettes and smoking habits is still debated. The present study aimed to investigate the diffusion of e-cigarette use among nursing students in north-eastern Italy and explore its association with tobacco smoking. METHODS:In 2015, a questionnaire focused on e-cigarette use and tobacco smoking habits was anonymously administered to 2020 students attending nursing courses held by Verona University in 5 different centres. Of these students, 1463 (72.4%) answered the questionnaire. The influence of e-cigarette ever use on both tobacco smoking initiation in all subjects and smoking cessation among ever smokers was investigated by multivariable logistic models. RESULTS:Most responders were female (77.1%), and the mean (SD) age was 23.2 (4.2) years. Nearly all students (94.7%) had heard about e-cigarettes. Approximately one-third (30.3, 95% CI 27.9-32.7%) had ever used e-cigarettes, but only 2.1% (1.5-3.0%) had used e-cigarettes in the last month. Very few (2.1%) of those responders who had never used e-cigarettes were willing to try them. Prevalence values were much higher for tobacco smoking: 40.9% of responders reported being current tobacco smokers, and 10.1% reported being past smokers. Ever use and current use of e-cigarettes were reported by 57.2 and 4.4% of current tobacco smokers and by 12.0 and 0.6% of never or past smokers, respectively (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, students who ever used e-cigarettes had 13 times greater odds of being an ever tobacco smoker than never users, whereas they had three times lower odds of being a former smoker. Only 26 students were currently using both electronic and tobacco cigarettes, and most declared that they used e-cigarettes to stop or reduce tobacco smoking. Of note, only three students reported that they had completely stopped smoking thanks to e-cigarette use. CONCLUSION:Use of e-cigarettes seemed to be rather rare among Italian nursing students and was mainly restricted to current smokers. E-cigarette use was not associated with smoking cessation in nursing students.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>We examined past-12-month quit attempts and smoking cessation from 2006 to 2016 while accounting for demographic shifts in the US population. In addition, we sought to understand whether the current use of electronic cigarettes was associated with a change in past-12-month quit attempts and successful smoking cessation at the population level.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed data from 25- to 44-year-olds from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) from 2006 to 2016 (N = 26,354) and the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) in 2006-2007, 2010-2011, and 2014-2015 (N = 33,627). Data on e-cigarette use were available in the 2014-2016 NHIS and 2014-2015 TUS-CPS surveys.<h4>Results</h4>Past-12-month quit attempts and smoking cessation increased in recent years compared with 2006. Current e-cigarette use was associated with higher quit attempts (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.87 to 2.81, p < .001) and greater smoking cessation (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.21 to 2.21, p = .001) in the NHIS. Multivariable logistic regression of the TUS-CPS data showed that current e-cigarette use was similarly significantly associated with increased past-12-month quit attempts and smoking cessation. Significant interactions were found for smoking frequency (everyday and some-day smoking) and current e-cigarette use for both outcomes (p < .0001) with the strongest positive effects seen in everyday smokers.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Compared with 2006, past-12-month quit attempts and smoking cessation increased among adults aged 25-44 in recent years. Current e-cigarette use was associated with increased past-12-month quit attempts and successful smoking cessation among established smokers. These findings are relevant to future tobacco policy decisions.<h4>Implications</h4>E-cigarettes were introduced into the US market over the past decade. During this period, past-12-month quit attempts and smoking cessation have increased among US adults aged 25-44. These trends are inconsistent with the hypothesis that e-cigarette use is delaying quit attempts and leading to decreased smoking cessation. In contrast, current e-cigarette use was associated with significantly higher past-12-month quit attempts and past-12-month cessation. These findings suggest that e-cigarette use contributes to a reduction in combustible cigarette use among established smokers.
Project description:OBJECTIVE: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is a continuous, nationwide, household interview survey of the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States. This annual survey is conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since 1965, the survey and its supplements have provided data on issues related to the use of cigarettes and other tobacco products. This paper describes the survey, provides an overview of peer-reviewed and government-issued research that uses tobacco-related data from the NHIS, and suggests additional areas for exploration and directions for future research. DATA SOURCES: We performed literature searches using the PubMed database, selecting articles from 1966 to 2008. Study selection. Inclusion criteria were relevancy to tobacco research and primary use of NHIS data; 117 articles met these criteria. Data extraction and synthesis. Tobacco-related data from the NHIS have been used to analyze smoking prevalence and trends; attitudes, knowledge, and beliefs; initiation; cessation and advice to quit; health care practices; health consequences; secondhand smoke exposure; and use of smokeless tobacco. To date, use of these data has had broad application; however, great potential still exists for additional use. CONCLUSION: NHIS data provide information that can be useful to both practitioners and researchers. It is important to explore new and creative ways to best use these data and to address the full range of salient tobacco-related topics. Doing so will better inform future tobacco control research and programs.
Project description:Smoking cessation is a primary method of reducing excess mortality and morbidity. Unfortunately, the vast majority of cessation attempts end in eventual relapse. Relapse-prevention interventions have shown some success at improving the long-term maintenance of tobacco abstinence among individuals motivated to abstain. However, involuntary tobacco abstinence (e.g., military training, hospitalization, incarceration) presents another opportunity for intervention to prevent relapse. During basic military training (BMT), tobacco use is strictly forbidden in all service branches, but tobacco relapse (and initiation) following BMT is extremely high. This paper reports on the design, intervention development, and baseline characteristics of a randomized controlled trial testing minimal interventions designed to prevent tobacco relapse among United States Air Force (USAF) personnel following BMT. Participants are randomized by squadron to receive either a standard smoking-cessation booklet, a new motivation-based booklet designed specifically for USAF personal, or the latter booklet combined with a brief, face-to-face motivational session. Primary outcomes will be self-reported tobacco use at 12 and 24month follow-up. Given that the Department of Defense is the world's largest employer, the potential of leveraging involuntary tobacco abstinence during BMT into extended abstinence has substantial public health significance.
Project description:<h4>Objective</h4>Few longitudinal studies have examined the effect of tobacco price increase on both cessation among smokers and relapse among quitters. Our objective was to investigate the differential impact of the tobacco price increase on the changes in smoking status in the total population and various subgroups.<h4>Methods</h4>We analysed data from a Japanese nationally representative longitudinal study of 30?773 individuals aged 50-59?years (weighted sum of discrete-time number = 215?411) with smoking information, using inverse probability weighting to account for non-response at follow-up. Generalised estimating equation models were used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) for smoking behavioural changes (cessation among smokers and relapse among quitters), using discrete-time design. Stratified analyses were conducted according to demographic, socioeconomic and health behavioural characteristics.<h4>Results</h4>From 2005 to 2012, current smoker prevalence among the middle-aged Japanese population decreased from 30.5% to 24.3%. Of all the factors surveyed, only the tobacco price increase in 2010 (up by 37%, the highest increase during the period) was significantly associated with both cessation among smokers (OR 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.90 to 2.41) and prevention of relapse among quitters (0.60, 0.46 to 0.77). Regarding the subgroup analysis, the tobacco price increase was associated with a significant reduction in relapse in the lowest income, recent quitters and very poor health subgroups. However, different associations were observed for cessation; a significant association between price increase and cessation was observed among all subgroups except for the heavy smoker and recently unemployed subgroups.<h4>Conclusions</h4>We confirmed that the tobacco price rise was associated with increasing cessation and decreasing relapse concurrently. Furthermore, this price rise was associated with favourable smoking changes in nearly all population subgroups; a large differential impact was not observed across the various subgroups.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:This research project aims at estimating the prevalence of cigarette smoking relapse and determining its predictors among adult former smokers in the USA. SETTING:This research analysed secondary data retrieved from the Tobacco Use Supplement-Current Population Survey 2010-2011 cohort in the USA. PARTICIPANTS:Out of 18 499 participants who responded to the survey in 2010 and 2011, the analysis included a total sample size of 3258 ever smokers, who were living in the USA and reported quitting smoking in 2010. The survey's respondents who never smoked or reported current smoking in 2010 were excluded from the study sample. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Smoking relapse was defined as picking up smoking in 2011 after reporting smoking abstinence in 2010. The prevalence of relapse over the 12-month follow-up period was estimated among different subgroups. Multivariable logistic regression models were applied to determine factors associated with relapse. RESULTS:A total of 184 former smokers reported smoking relapse by 2011 (weighted prevalence 6.8%; 95% CI 5.7% to 8.1%). Prevalence and odds of relapse were higher among young people compared with elders. Former smokers living in smoke-free homes (SFHs) had 60% lower odds of relapse compared with those living in homes that allowed smoking inside (adjusted OR 0.40; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.64). Regarding race/ethnicity, only Hispanics showed significantly higher odds of relapse compared with Whites (non-Hispanics). Odds of relapse were higher among never married, widowed, divorced and separated individuals, compared with the married group. Continuous smoking cessation for 6 months or more significantly decreased odds of relapse. CONCLUSIONS:Wider health determinants, such as race and age, but also living in SFHs showed significant associations with smoking relapse, which could inform the development of more targeted programmes to support those smokers who successfully quit, although further longitudinal studies are required to confirm our findings.
Project description:The diseases associated with tobacco smoking affect miRNAs and small single-stranded non-coding RNAs. However, there are no data on urinal miRNAs in healthy smokers. We searched for the possible effect of smoking and smoking cessation on miRNA urine expression. For screening, Affymetrix miRNA 4.0 arrays were used in 33 urine samples obtained from six never smokers and from current smokers in three time-points before smoking cessation (n = 10), after short time abstinence (3-8 weeks), and after long-term abstinence (1 year). For validation, a quantitative (q) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method was used in 93 urine samples obtained from 18 never smokers and 25 current smokers in three time-points before smoking cessation, after short time abstinence (3-8 weeks), and after long-term abstinence (1 year). In screening analysis, 5 miRNAs (hsa-miR-3620-5p, hsa-miR-3613-5p, hsa-miR-3921, hsa-miR-5094, and hsa-miR-337-3p) were dysregulated in current vs. never smokers after multiple testing corrections. Smoking cessation was accompanied by miRNA dysregulation that did not reach a significant level after a multiple testing correction. In validation analysis, three miRNAs correlated with cotinine, but they were affected neither after smoking cessation nor between current and never smokers. Our whole-genome screening of 2.578 miRNAs and validation suggest that tobacco smoking has no or only a small effect on urinal miRNAs.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>Tobacco use is associated with poor outcomes in cancer patients, but there is little information from oncology providers on their practice patterns or perceptions regarding tobacco use and smoking cessation in these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>An online survey of practices, perceptions, and barriers to tobacco assessment and cessation in cancer patients was conducted in members of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC). Responses of physician-level respondents were analyzed and reported.<h4>Results</h4>Responses from 1507 IASLC members who completed the survey are reported as representing 40.5% of IASLC members. More than 90% of physician respondents believe current smoking affects outcome and that cessation should be a standard part of clinical care. At the initial patient visit, 90% ask patients about tobacco use, 79% ask patients whether they will quit, 81% advise patients to stop tobacco use, but only 40% discuss medication options, 39% actively provide cessation assistance, and fewer yet address tobacco at follow-up. Dominant barriers to physician cessation effort are pessimism regarding their ability to help patients stop using tobacco (58%) and concerns about patient resistance to treatment (67%). Only 33% report themselves to be adequately trained to provide cessation interventions.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Physicians who care for lung cancer patients recognize the importance of tobacco cessation as a necessary part of clinical care, but many still do not provide assistance to their patients as a routine part of cancer care. Increasing tobacco cessation activities will require increased assessment and cessation at diagnosis and during follow-up, increased clinician education, and improved tobacco cessation methods.