The changing demography of the cystic fibrosis population: forecasting future numbers of adults in the UK.
ABSTRACT: Improvements in management of cystic fibrosis (CF) through specialist centres in the UK have been associated with a step-change in life expectancy. With increasing numbers of adult patients there is a need to review health care provision to ensure it is sufficient to meet future needs. We used UK CF Registry data to project the number of patients aged 16-17 and 18 and older ?up to 2030, and numbers therefore requiring specialist adult CF care. Survival modelling was used to estimate age-specific mortality rates. New-diagnosis rates were estimated using diagnoses observed in the Registry and national population figures. Uncertainty in projections was captured through 95% prediction intervals (PI). The number of adults (aged 18 and older) is expected to increase by 28% from 6,225 in 2017 to 7,988 in 2030 (95% PI 7,803-8,169), assuming current mortality rates. If mortality rates improve at the rate seen over recent years, the projected number increases to 8,579 (95% PI 8,386-8,764). The age distribution is also expected to change, with 36% of CF adults being over 40 in 2030, versus 21% in 2017. There is an urgent requirement to review adult CF health care provision, due to both increasing numbers and the changing care needs of an older population.
Project description:Changing global demography is resulting in older people presenting to emergency departments (EDs) in greater numbers than ever before. They present with greater urgency and are more likely to be admitted to hospital or re-attend and utilize greater resources. They experience longer waits for care and are less likely to be satisfied with their experiences. Not only that, but older people suffer poorer health outcomes after ED attendance, with higher mortality rates and greater dependence in activities of daily living or rates of admission to nursing homes. Older people's assessment and management in the ED can be complex, time consuming, and require specialist skills. The interplay of multiple comorbidities and functional decline result in the complex state of frailty that can predispose to poor health outcomes and greater care needs. Older people with frailty may present to services in an atypical fashion requiring detailed, multidimensional, and increasingly multidisciplinary care to provide the correct diagnosis and management as well as appropriate placement for ongoing care or admission avoidance. Specific challenges such as delirium, functional decline, or carer strain need to be screened for and managed appropriately. Identifying patients with specific frailty syndromes can be critical to identifying those at highest risk of poor outcomes and most likely to benefit from further specialist interventions. Models of care are evolving that aim to deliver multidimensional assessment and management by multidisciplinary specialist care teams (comprehensive geriatric assessment). Increasingly, these models are demonstrating improved outcomes, including admission avoidance or reduced death and dependence. Delivering this in the ED is an evolving area of practice that adapts the principles of geriatric medicine for the urgent-care environment.
Project description:The population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future.We constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs-including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies-and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10?278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030.Our model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug-drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens.The profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge.Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.
Project description:The present study determined the plasma amino acid status in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) and pancreatic insufficiency (PI) in the modern medical and nutritional care setting and investigated the effect of choline supplementation on amino acid status. A total of 110 children aged 5 to 18 years with CF and PI were randomized to receive choline-enriched structured lipid (LYM-X-SORB) or placebo with similar energy and fat content. Plasma amino acids were measured at baseline and 3 and 12 months. We hypothesized that choline supplementation would result in lower plasma homocysteine concentrations in children with CF. At baseline, dietary protein intake was high and the amino acid profile was within laboratory reference ranges in most participants. Alanine and cysteine were elevated in 24% and 36% of participants, respectively. Children with baseline alanine above reference range had improved weight, body mass index, and fat-free mass. Low homocysteine was found in 62% of children 11 years and older. After 3 and 12 months, there was no effect of choline supplementation on methionine or homocysteine status. Compared with placebo, choline supplementation resulted in increased glycine and decreased threonine, histidine, valine, and total branch chained amino acids at 12 months. In conclusion, daily choline supplementation with LYM-X-SORB did not alter methionine-homocysteine metabolism but did result in alterations in other amino acids in children with CF and PI.
Project description:Outpatient follow-up has been a key intervention point in addressing gaps in care after hospital discharge. We sought to estimate the association between enrolment in new team-based primary care practices and 30-day postdischarge physician follow-up among older patients and patients with chronic illnesses who were admitted to hospital in Quebec, Canada.Patients were selected into this cohort if a primary care physician enrolled them as a "vulnerable patient" between November 2002 and January 2005. Data for this analysis included province-wide health insurance claims for inpatient and outpatient services delivered between November 2002 and January 2009 in Quebec. The primary analysis examined time to the first outpatient postdischarge follow-up service provided by either a primary care physician or a medical specialist. We used marginal structural models to estimate adjusted rates of follow-up with a primary care physician or with a medical specialist by primary care delivery models.We extracted billing data for 312?377 patients that represented 620?656 index admissions for any cause from 2002 to 2009. Rates of 30-day follow-up were 374 visits to primary care physicians and 422 visits to medical specialists per 1000 discharges. Rates of primary care physician follow-up were similar across primary care delivery models, except for patients with very high morbidity; these patients had significantly higher rates of follow-up with a primary care physician if they were enrolled in team-based primary care practices (30-d rate difference [RD] 13.3 more follow-up visits per 1000 discharges, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8 to 19.8). Rates of follow-up with a medical specialist were lower among patients enrolled in team-based practices, particularly within 15 days of hospital discharge (15-d RD 25.1 fewer follow-up visits per 1000 discharges, 95% CI 21.1 to 29.1).Our study found lower rates of postdischarge follow-up with a medical specialist among older patients and patients with chronic illness who were enrolled in team-based primary care practices compared with those enrolled in traditional primary care practices. Future research is needed to better understand the role of primary health care service organization in improving acute postdischarge care.
Project description:Patients with pancreatic-insufficient cystic fibrosis (PI-CF) are at increased risk for developing diabetes. We determined ?-cell secretory capacity and insulin secretory rates from glucose-potentiated arginine and mixed-meal tolerance tests (MMTTs), respectively, in pancreatic-sufficient cystic fibrosis (PS-CF), PI-CF, and normal control subjects, all with normal glucose tolerance, in order to identify early pathophysiologic defects. Acute islet cell secretory responses were determined under fasting, 230 mg/dL, and 340 mg/dL hyperglycemia clamp conditions. PI-CF subjects had lower acute insulin, C-peptide, and glucagon responses compared with PS-CF and normal control subjects, indicating reduced ?-cell secretory capacity and ?-cell function. Fasting proinsulin-to-C-peptide and proinsulin secretory ratios during glucose potentiation were higher in PI-CF, suggesting impaired proinsulin processing. In the first 30 min of the MMTT, insulin secretion was lower in PI-CF compared with PS-CF and normal control subjects, and glucagon-like peptide 1 and gastric inhibitory polypeptide were lower compared with PS-CF, and after 180 min, glucose was higher in PI-CF compared with normal control subjects. These findings indicate that despite "normal" glucose tolerance, adolescents and adults with PI-CF have impairments in functional islet mass and associated early-phase insulin secretion, which with decreased incretin responses likely leads to the early development of postprandial hyperglycemia in CF.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To assess progress in Australia toward the 2030 WHO hepatitis C elimination targets two years after the introduction of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments. DESIGN:Analysis of quarterly data on government-subsidised hepatitis C RNA testing and hepatitis C treatment in Australia, January 2013 - June 2018. Changes in testing and treatment levels associated with DAA availability were assessed in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model, and the impact by 2030 of different levels of testing and treatment were estimated using a mathematical model. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES:Hepatitis C prevalence among people who inject drugs; annual hepatitis C incidence relative to 2015 levels; projections for the hepatitis C care cascade in 2030. RESULTS:The mean annual number of treatments initiated for people with hepatitis C increased from 6747 during 2013-2015 (before the introduction of DAAs) to 28 022 during 2016-18; the mean annual number of diagnostic RNA tests increased from 17 385 to 23 819. If current trends in testing and treatment continue (ie, 2018 testing numbers are maintained but treatment numbers decline by 50%), it is projected that by 2030 only 72% of infected people would be treated (by 2025 all people diagnosed with hepatitis C would be treated). The incidence of hepatitis C in 2030 would be 59% lower than in 2015, well short of the WHO target of an 80% reduction. The identification and testing of people exposed to hepatitis C must be increased by at least 50% for Australia to reach the WHO elimination targets. CONCLUSION:Hepatitis C elimination programs in Australia should focus on increasing testing rates and linkage with care to maintain adequate levels of treatment.
Project description:Many studies have shown the tendency for people without a regular care provider or primary physician to make greater use of emergency departments. We sought to determine the effects of three aspects of care provided by primary physicians (physician specialty, continuity of care and comprehensiveness of care) on their patients' use of the emergency department.Using provincial administrative databases, we created a cohort of 367,315 adults aged 18 years and older. Participants were residents of urban areas of Quebec. Affiliation with a primary physician, the specialty of this physician (i.e., family physician v. specialist), continuity of care (as measured using the Usual Provider Continuity index) and comprehensiveness of care (i.e., number of complete annual examinations) were measured among participants (n = 311,701) who had visited a physician three or more times during a two-year baseline period. We used multivariable negative binomial regression to investigate the relationships between measures of care and the number of visits to emergency departments during a 12-month follow-up period.Among participants under 65 years of age, emergency department use was higher for those not affiliated than for those affiliated with a family physician (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.16) or a specialist (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.17). Among patients aged 65 years and older, having a specialist primary physician, as opposed to a family physician, predicted increased use of the emergency department (IRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.17). Greater continuity of care with a family physician predicted less use of the emergency department only among participants who made 25 or more visits to a physician during the baseline period. Greater continuity of care with a specialist predicted less use of the emergency department overall, particularly among participants with intermediate numbers of multimorbidities and admissions to hospital. Greater comprehensiveness of care by family physicians predicted less use of the emergency department.Efforts to increase the proportion of adults affiliated with a family physician should target older adults, people who visit physicians more frequently and people with multiple comorbidities and admissions to hospital.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Contemporary HIV care may reduce frailty in older adults living with HIV (OALWH). Objective of the study was to estimate prevalence of frailty at the age of 50 and 75 years, and build a model to quantify the burden of frailty in the year 2030. METHODS:This study included OALWH attending Modena HIV Metabolic Clinic between 2009 and 2015. Patients are referred from more than 120 HIV clinics well distributed across Italy, therefore being country representative. Our model forecasts the new entries on yearly basis up to 2030. Changes in frailty over a one-year period using a 37-variable frailty index (FI) and death rates were modelled using a validated mathematical algorithm with parameters adjusted to best represent the changes observed at the clinic. In this study, we assessed the number of frailest individuals (defined with a FI > 0.4) at the age of 50 and at the age 75 by calendar year. RESULTS:In the period 2015-2030 we model that frailest OALWH at age 50 will decrease from 26 to 7%, and at the age of 75 years will increase from 43 to 52%. This implies a shift of the frailty prevalence at an older age. CONCLUSION:We have presented projections of how the burden of frailty in older adults, living with HIV will change. We project fewer people aged 50+ with severe frailty, most of whom will be older than now. These results suggest a compression of age-related frailty.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:In light of concerns for meeting the provision of healthcare services given the large numbers of ageing baby boomers, we compared the trajectories of primary care and specialist services use across the lifecourse of 5 birth cohorts and examined factors associated with birth cohort differences. DESIGN:Longitudinal panel. SETTING:Canadian National Population Health Survey (1994-2011). POPULATION:Sample of 10 186 individuals aged 20-69 years in 1994-1995 and who were from 5 birth cohorts: Generation X (Gen X; born: 1965-1974), Younger Baby Boomers (born: 1955-1964), Older Baby Boomers (born: 1945-1954), World War II (born: 1935-1944) and pre-World War II (born: 1925-1934). MAIN OUTCOMES:Use of primary care and specialist services. RESULTS:Although the overall pattern suggested less use of physician services by each successive recent cohort, this blinded differences in primary and specialist care use by cohort. Multilevel analyses comparing cohorts showed that Gen Xers and younger boomers, particularly those with multimorbidity, were less likely to use primary care than earlier cohorts. In contrast, specialist use was higher in recent cohorts, with Gen Xers having the highest specialist use. These increases were explained by the increasing levels of multimorbidity. Education, income, having a regular source of care, sedentary lifestyle and obesity were significantly associated with physician services use, but only partially contributed to cohort differences. CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest a shift from primary care to specialist care among recent cohorts, particularly for those with multimorbidity. This is of concern given policies to promote primary care services to prevent and manage chronic conditions. There is a need for policies to address important generational differences in healthcare preferences and the balance between primary and specialty care to ensure integration and coordination of healthcare delivery.
Project description:Background:Persons living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk for certain types of cancer. With modern antiretroviral therapy, PLWH are aging and cancer rates are changing. Objective:To project cancer incidence rates and burden (number of new cancer diagnoses) among adult PLWH in the United States through 2030. Design:Descriptive. Setting:HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to project cancer rates and HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model to project HIV prevalence. Participants:HIV-infected adults. Measurements:Projected cancer rates and burden among HIV-infected adults in the United States by age during 2006 to 2030 for AIDS-defining cancer (ADC)-that is, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer-and certain types of non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC). All other cancer types were combined. Results:The proportion of adult PLWH in the United States aged 65 years or older is projected to increase from 8.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2030. Age-specific rates are projected to decrease through 2030 across age groups for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, cervical cancer, lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and other cancer types combined, and among those aged 65 years or older for colon cancer. Prostate cancer rates are projected to increase. The estimated total cancer burden in PLWH will decrease from 8150 cases in 2010 (2730 of ADC and 5420 of NADC) to 6690 cases in 2030 (720 of ADC and 5980 of NADC). In 2030, prostate cancer (n = 1590) and lung cancer (n = 1030) are projected to be the most common cancer types. Limitation:Projections assume that current trends in cancer incidence rates, HIV transmission, and survival will continue. Conclusion:The cancer burden among PLWH is projected to shift, with prostate and lung cancer expected to emerge as the most common types by 2030. Cancer will remain an important comorbid condition, and expanded access to HIV therapies and cancer prevention, screening, and treatment is needed. Primary Funding Source:National Cancer Institute.