biostudies-literatureUnknownOngan SThe food industry has been greatly impacted by COVID-19, causing governments to restrict food exports to prevent shortages. A negative food trade balance reveals a country's dependence on imports and underscores the significance of a sound food policy. Hence, for the first time, this study examines the J-curve hypothesis for the U.S. with Canada at the state rather than country level and creates maps based on the findings. The approach of this study differs from all empirical studies using country-level J-curve analyses, because the U.S. may require a state level analysis since its states differ in terms of economic-population sizes, tax rates, and administrative structures. For this aim, this study employs the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The resuJournal fur Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit = Journal of consumer protection and food safety1-16https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC10162907biostudies-literatureFood-based bilateral trade balance performances between the United States and Canada under COVID-19.PMC10162907Ongan SGocer IKaramelikli HfalseFood-based bilateral trade balance performances between the United States and Canada under COVID-19.The food industry has been greatly impacted by COVID-19, causing governments to restrict food exports to prevent shortages. A negative food trade balance reveals a country's dependence on imports and underscores the significance of a sound food policy. Hence, for the first time, this study examines the J-curve hypothesis for the U.S. with Canada at the state rather than country level and creates maps based on the findings. The approach of this study differs from all empirical studies using country-level J-curve analyses, because the U.S. may require a state level analysis since its states differ in terms of economic-population sizes, tax rates, and administrative structures. For this aim, this study employs the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The resu2023-01-01T00:00:00Z2023 May2026-05-07T08:24:23.502Z2025-04-06T09:05:40.846ZS-EPMC101629073736166810.1007/s00003-023-01436-x