{"database":"biostudies-literature","file_versions":[],"scores":null,"additional":{"submitter":["Forecasting Collaborative"],"funding":["Swiss National Science Foundation","NCCIH NIH HHS"],"pagination":["484-501"],"full_dataset_link":["https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC10192018"],"repository":["biostudies-literature"],"omics_type":["Unknown"],"volume":["7(4)"],"pubmed_abstract":["How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' foreca"],"journal":["Nature human behaviour"],"pubmed_title":["Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change."],"pmcid":["PMC10192018"],"funding_grant_id":["170463","K23 AT010879"],"pubmed_authors":["Ferguson ZE","Shuman E","Bartos F","Majeed NM","Bialek M","Thomakos D","Sevincer AT","Myrseth KOR","Ross RM","Schutz A","Talhelm T","Ungar L","Ortega AL","Banik G","Ly AL","Karg ST","Baskin E","Hirshberg MJ","Slattery P","Nicholas J","Dhaliwal NA","Paruzel-Czachura M","Wilkening T","Adamkovic M","Conway LG","Madan CR","Charis L","Gronlund SD","Goldberg SB","Pauer S","Teachman BA","Mandel DR","Browne DT","Martinie MFRC","Wienk MNA","Grossmann I","Marsh AA","Achter S","van Loon A","Bandara K","Krenzler R","Frimer JA","Tse DCK","Lannin DG","Sherman GT","Sharpinskyi K","Lukaszewski AW","Raes L","Day MV","Tai CC","Schnabel L","Mahoney L","Chopik WJ","Hafenbradl S","Graf-Vlachy L","Arami A","Gallegos JM","Otterbring T","Michaels EK","Seifert M","Lou NM","Kaiser CR","Tay L","Strijbis O","Forecasting Collaborative","Vie A","Elbaek CT","Fabrykant M","Vosgerichian HA","Smiley AH","Guo XE","Borsting CK","Dhami MK","Davis M","March DS","Wang K","Darling-Hammond S","Sung MC","Wang Q","Firat M","Kara-Yakoubian M","Chen R","Goyal J","Hartanto A","Nikolopoulos K","Roysamb E","Caruso EM","Dziekan M","Yoon S","Bloom PA","Wagner L","Vandermeulen D","Whiting ME","Rotella A","Sznycer D","Voelkel JG","Alves VR","Misiak M","Lin HW","Howe PDL","Roth Y","O J","Napan JM","Protzko J","Varnum MEW","Simonsson O","Yang T","Millroth P","Lua VYQ","Arriaga P","Twardus OJ","Yogeeswaran K","Cong CW","Ropovik I","Izadi A","Raffaelli Q","Collins RN","Choi M","Jaeger B","Marsh MS","Gollwitzer A","Hornsey MJ","Kacmar P","Kim YJ","Naqvi JB","Chie BT","Andrews-Hanna JR","Rutledge RB","Tsukayama E","Wollbrant CE","Bergmeir C","Hutcherson CA","Fong GT","Maier M","Boyles A","Ng W","Tetlock PE","Durham JD","Tybur JM","Vaughan Williams L"],"additional_accession":[]},"is_claimable":false,"name":"Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change.","description":"How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' foreca","dates":{"release":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","publication":"2023 Apr","modification":"2025-04-04T19:58:12.669Z","creation":"2025-04-04T19:58:12.669Z"},"accession":"S-EPMC10192018","cross_references":{"pubmed":["36759585"],"doi":["10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1"]}}