{"database":"biostudies-literature","file_versions":[],"scores":null,"additional":{"submitter":["la Roi-Teeuw HM"],"funding":["Dutch Heart Foundation","ZonMw","Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development"],"pagination":["oead101"],"full_dataset_link":["https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC10690016"],"repository":["biostudies-literature"],"omics_type":["Unknown"],"volume":["3(6)"],"pubmed_abstract":["<h4>Aims</h4>Previous studies suggest relatively increased cardiovascular risk after COVID-19 infection. This study assessed incidence and explored individual risk and timing of cardiovascular disease occurring post-COVID-19 in a large primary care database.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Data were extracted from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Incidence rates within 180 days post-infection were estimated for arterial or venous events, inflammatory heart disease, and new-onset atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Next, multivariable logistic regression models were developed on 220 751 adults with COVID-19 infection before 1 December 2020 using age, sex and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. All models were externally validated in (i) 138 034 vaccinated and (ii) 503 404 unvaccinated adults with a first COVID-19 infection after 1 December 2020. Discriminative performance and calibration were evaluated with internal and external validation. Increased incidence rates were observed up to 60 days after COVID-19 infection for venous and arterial cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation, but not for inflammatory heart disease or heart failure, with the highest rate for venous events (13 per 1000 person-years). The best prediction models had <i>c</i>-statistics of 0.90 or higher. However, <5% of adults had a predicted 180-day outcome-specific risk larger than 1%. These rare outcomes complicated calibration.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Risks of arterial and venous cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation are increased within the first 60 days after COVID-19 infection in the general population. Models' <i>c</i>-statistics suggest high discrimination, but because of the very low absolute risks, they are insufficient to inform individual risk management."],"journal":["European heart journal open"],"pubmed_title":["Incidence and individual risk prediction of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular disease in the general population: a multivariable prediction model development and validation study."],"pmcid":["PMC10690016"],"funding_grant_id":["08391052110003","01-001-2020-T063"],"pubmed_authors":["la Roi-Teeuw HM","van Smeden M","Klungel OH","van Doorn S","Geersing GJ","Rutten FH","Souverein PC"],"additional_accession":[]},"is_claimable":false,"name":"Incidence and individual risk prediction of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular disease in the general population: a multivariable prediction model development and validation study.","description":"<h4>Aims</h4>Previous studies suggest relatively increased cardiovascular risk after COVID-19 infection. This study assessed incidence and explored individual risk and timing of cardiovascular disease occurring post-COVID-19 in a large primary care database.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Data were extracted from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Incidence rates within 180 days post-infection were estimated for arterial or venous events, inflammatory heart disease, and new-onset atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Next, multivariable logistic regression models were developed on 220 751 adults with COVID-19 infection before 1 December 2020 using age, sex and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. All models were externally validated in (i) 138 034 vaccinated and (ii) 503 404 unvaccinated adults with a first COVID-19 infection after 1 December 2020. Discriminative performance and calibration were evaluated with internal and external validation. Increased incidence rates were observed up to 60 days after COVID-19 infection for venous and arterial cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation, but not for inflammatory heart disease or heart failure, with the highest rate for venous events (13 per 1000 person-years). The best prediction models had <i>c</i>-statistics of 0.90 or higher. However, <5% of adults had a predicted 180-day outcome-specific risk larger than 1%. These rare outcomes complicated calibration.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Risks of arterial and venous cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation are increased within the first 60 days after COVID-19 infection in the general population. Models' <i>c</i>-statistics suggest high discrimination, but because of the very low absolute risks, they are insufficient to inform individual risk management.","dates":{"release":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","publication":"2023 Nov","modification":"2026-04-07T15:47:18.062Z","creation":"2025-02-19T01:18:53.727Z"},"accession":"S-EPMC10690016","cross_references":{"pubmed":["38046622"],"doi":["10.1093/ehjopen/oead101"]}}