biostudies-literatureChen KData Science Institute, University of TorontoCanada Research Chairs335-340https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC11041567biostudies-literatureUnknown78(5)<h4>Background</h4>Predicting chronic disease incidence at a population level can help inform overall future chronic disease burden and opportunities for prevention. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic disease in Ontario, Canada, using a population-level risk prediction algorithm and model interventions for equity-deserving groups who experience barriers to services and resources due to disadvantages and discrimination.<h4>Methods</h4>The validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) estimates the 10-year risk and incidence of major chronic diseases. CDPoRT was applied to data from the 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey to predict baseline 10-year chronic disease estimates to 2027/2028 in the adult population of Ontario, Canada, and among equity-deserving groups. CDPoRT was used to model prevention scenarios of 2% and 5% risk reductions over 10 years targeting high-risk equity-deserving groups.<h4>Results</h4>Baseline chronic disease risk was highest among those with less than secondary school education (37.5%), severe food insecurity (19.5%), low income (21.2%) and extreme workplace stress (15.0%). CDPoRT predicted 1.42 million new chronic disease cases in Ontario from 2017/2018 to 2027/2028. Reducing chronic disease risk by 5% prevented 1500 cases among those with less than secondary school education, prevented 14 900 cases among those with low household income and prevented 2800 cases among food-insecure populations. Large reductions of 57 100 cases were found by applying a 5% risk reduction in individuals with quite a bit workplace stress.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Considerable reduction in chronic disease cases was predicted across equity-defined scenarios, suggesting the need for prevention strategies that consider upstream determinants affecting chronic disease risk.Journal of epidemiology and community healthModeling chronic disease risk across equity factors using a population-based prediction model: the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT).PMC11041567N/A72060091Chen KKornas KRosella LCfalseModeling chronic disease risk across equity factors using a population-based prediction model: the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT).<h4>Background</h4>Predicting chronic disease incidence at a population level can help inform overall future chronic disease burden and opportunities for prevention. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic disease in Ontario, Canada, using a population-level risk prediction algorithm and model interventions for equity-deserving groups who experience barriers to services and resources due to disadvantages and discrimination.<h4>Methods</h4>The validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) estimates the 10-year risk and incidence of major chronic diseases. CDPoRT was applied to data from the 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey to predict baseline 10-year chronic disease estimates to 2027/2028 in the adult population of Ontario, Canada, and among equity-deserving groups. CDPoRT was used to model prevention scenarios of 2% and 5% risk reductions over 10 years targeting high-risk equity-deserving groups.<h4>Results</h4>Baseline chronic disease risk was highest among those with less than secondary school education (37.5%), severe food insecurity (19.5%), low income (21.2%) and extreme workplace stress (15.0%). CDPoRT predicted 1.42 million new chronic disease cases in Ontario from 2017/2018 to 2027/2028. Reducing chronic disease risk by 5% prevented 1500 cases among those with less than secondary school education, prevented 14 900 cases among those with low household income and prevented 2800 cases among food-insecure populations. Large reductions of 57 100 cases were found by applying a 5% risk reduction in individuals with quite a bit workplace stress.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Considerable reduction in chronic disease cases was predicted across equity-defined scenarios, suggesting the need for prevention strategies that consider upstream determinants affecting chronic disease risk.2024-01-01T00:00:00Z2024 Apr2026-06-08T06:47:15.481Z2026-06-08T03:13:53.412ZS-EPMC110415673838314510.1136/jech-2023-221080