biostudies-literatureCarey KANational Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesIntramural NIH HHSU.S. Department of EnergyOak Ridge Institute for Science and EducationNational Institutes of Health7176-7181https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC11261575biostudies-literatureUnknown40(50)<h4>Background</h4>Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States.<h4>Methods</h4>Our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%).<h4>Results</h4>Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low VaccineEstimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model.PMC11261575Z99 AI999999Carey KANewman LMSpicknall IHfalseEstimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model.<h4>Background</h4>Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States.<h4>Methods</h4>Our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%).<h4>Results</h4>Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Nov2025-04-04T14:46:03.367Z2025-04-04T14:46:03.367ZS-EPMC112615753633322410.1016/j.vaccine.2022.10.031