biostudies-literatureMu CGansu Science and Technology Department (Science and Technology Department of Gansu Province)National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)2404https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC11894136biostudies-literatureUnknown16(1)Thermokarst lakes, serving as significant sources of methane (CH₄), play a crucial role in affecting the feedback of permafrost carbon cycle to global warming. However, accurately assessing CH₄ emissions from these lakes remains challenging due to limited observations during lake ice melting periods. In this study, by integrating field surveys with machine learning modeling, we offer a comprehensive assessment of present and future CH₄ emissions from thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results reveal that the previously underestimated CH₄ release from lake ice bubble and water storage during ice melting periods is 11.2 ± 1.6 Gg C of CH₄, accounting for 17 ± 4% of the annual total release from lakes. Despite thermokarst lakes cover only 0.2% of the permafrost area, they annually emit 65.5 ± 10.0 Gg C of CH₄, which offsets 6.4% of the net carbon sink in alpine grasslands on the plateau. Considering the loss of lake ice, the expansion of thermokarst lakes is projected to lead to 1.1-1.2 folds increase in CH₄ emissions by 2100. Our study allows foreseeing future CH₄ emissions from the rapid expanding thermokarst lakes and sheds new lights on processes controlling the carbon-climate feedback in alpine permafrost ecosystems.Nature communicationsMethane emissions from thermokarst lakes must emphasize the ice-melting impact on the Tibetan Plateau.PMC118941364237113223JRRA117142161160328Peng XZhang GLi DSong CWang GSong JMu CZhou ZWang LMu MYang YZhang ZJia YZhang CLei PFan CfalseMethane emissions from thermokarst lakes must emphasize the ice-melting impact on the Tibetan Plateau.Thermokarst lakes, serving as significant sources of methane (CH₄), play a crucial role in affecting the feedback of permafrost carbon cycle to global warming. However, accurately assessing CH₄ emissions from these lakes remains challenging due to limited observations during lake ice melting periods. In this study, by integrating field surveys with machine learning modeling, we offer a comprehensive assessment of present and future CH₄ emissions from thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Our results reveal that the previously underestimated CH₄ release from lake ice bubble and water storage during ice melting periods is 11.2 ± 1.6 Gg C of CH₄, accounting for 17 ± 4% of the annual total release from lakes. Despite thermokarst lakes cover only 0.2% of the permafrost area, they annually emit 65.5 ± 10.0 Gg C of CH₄, which offsets 6.4% of the net carbon sink in alpine grasslands on the plateau. Considering the loss of lake ice, the expansion of thermokarst lakes is projected to lead to 1.1-1.2 folds increase in CH₄ emissions by 2100. Our study allows foreseeing future CH₄ emissions from the rapid expanding thermokarst lakes and sheds new lights on processes controlling the carbon-climate feedback in alpine permafrost ecosystems.2025-01-01T00:00:00Z2025 Mar2025-04-04T20:25:23.272Z2025-04-04T20:25:23.272ZS-EPMC118941364006490210.1038/s41467-025-57745-2