{"database":"biostudies-literature","file_versions":[],"scores":null,"additional":{"submitter":["Zhang G"],"funding":["NSF"],"pagination":["244"],"full_dataset_link":["https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC12574068"],"repository":["biostudies-literature"],"omics_type":["Unknown"],"volume":["25(1)"],"pubmed_abstract":["<h4>Background</h4>Human behavioral responses to changes in risks are often delayed. Methods for estimating these delayed responses either rely on rigid assumptions about the delay distribution (e.g., Erlang distribution), producing a poor fit, or yield period-specific estimates (e.g., estimates from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model) that are difficult to integrate into simulation models. We propose a hybrid ARDL-Erlang approach that yields an interpretable summary of behavioral responses suitable for incorporation into simulation models.<h4>Method</h4>We apply the ARDL-Erlang approach to estimate the effect of COVID-19 deaths on mobility across US counties from October 2020 to July 2021. A standard panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model first estimates the effect"],"journal":["BMC medical research methodology"],"pubmed_title":["Identifying delayed human response to external risks: an econometric analysis of mobility change during a pandemic."],"pmcid":["PMC12574068"],"funding_grant_id":["2229819"],"pubmed_authors":["Zhang G","Ghaffarzadegan N","Xu R","Osi A","Rahmandad H"],"additional_accession":[]},"is_claimable":false,"name":"Identifying delayed human response to external risks: an econometric analysis of mobility change during a pandemic.","description":"<h4>Background</h4>Human behavioral responses to changes in risks are often delayed. Methods for estimating these delayed responses either rely on rigid assumptions about the delay distribution (e.g., Erlang distribution), producing a poor fit, or yield period-specific estimates (e.g., estimates from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model) that are difficult to integrate into simulation models. We propose a hybrid ARDL-Erlang approach that yields an interpretable summary of behavioral responses suitable for incorporation into simulation models.<h4>Method</h4>We apply the ARDL-Erlang approach to estimate the effect of COVID-19 deaths on mobility across US counties from October 2020 to July 2021. A standard panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model first estimates the effect","dates":{"release":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","publication":"2025 Oct","modification":"2026-06-05T09:40:34.341Z","creation":"2026-05-15T03:12:14.608Z"},"accession":"S-EPMC12574068","cross_references":{"pubmed":["41162952"],"doi":["10.1186/s12874-025-02696-x"]}}