biostudies-literatureHerbert SMHoldsworth Charitable TrustBioProtection Aotearoa Centre of Research ExcellenceWellington City Councile70088https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC12658944biostudies-literatureUnknown39(6)Identifying refugia from emerging threats is vital to ensure the persistence of rare and threatened species, but modeling habitat distribution for these species is challenging and the role of people in refuge management is rarely considered. Myrtle rust is an emerging infectious disease that represents a grave threat to the rare wetland tree species maire tawake (Syzygium maire) in Aotearoa New Zealand. We combined high-resolution hydrological modeling with integrated species distribution modeling of new and existing S. maire records to identify the extent of habitat in the capital city region available for conservation management. We mapped 2 myrtle rust infection risk scenarios throughout the region to identify areas of relatively low disease risk and used distance of S. maire habitat toConservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation BiologyIdentifying potentially suitable and accessible refugia to mitigate impacts of an emerging disease on a rare tree.PMC12658944E3784‐3339E3784-3339Lai HRTomscha SABenavidez RHerbert SMJackson BBalkwill CGDeslippe JRRuston PRfalseIdentifying potentially suitable and accessible refugia to mitigate impacts of an emerging disease on a rare tree.Identifying refugia from emerging threats is vital to ensure the persistence of rare and threatened species, but modeling habitat distribution for these species is challenging and the role of people in refuge management is rarely considered. Myrtle rust is an emerging infectious disease that represents a grave threat to the rare wetland tree species maire tawake (Syzygium maire) in Aotearoa New Zealand. We combined high-resolution hydrological modeling with integrated species distribution modeling of new and existing S. maire records to identify the extent of habitat in the capital city region available for conservation management. We mapped 2 myrtle rust infection risk scenarios throughout the region to identify areas of relatively low disease risk and used distance of S. maire habitat to2025-01-01T00:00:00Z2025 Dec2026-07-15T06:40:44.035Z2026-06-30T03:22:42.438ZS-EPMC126589444058378710.1111/cobi.70088