biostudies-literatureBorowski SUnited States Department of Veterans Affairs, Clinical Sciences Research and Development Service (CSR&D) VA-STARRS Researcher-in-Residence ProgramNIMH NIH HHSU.S. Department of Defense10https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC12901102biostudies-literatureUnknown5(1)Transitioning service members (TSMs) leaving military service have high risks of unemployment, homelessness, nonfatal suicide attempt (SA), and suicide death. Data from n = 7188 recently separated TSMs from the U.S. Army were used to update previously developed models for post-separation homelessness and SA based on data at the time of separation and to develop a new unemployment model. Predicted probabilities of suicide from a model developed elsewhere were imputed for comparison purposes. Cross-validated predictions were significant for the homelessness (AU-ROC = 0.68) and SA (AU-ROC = 0.78) models but not the unemployment model (AU-ROC = 0.60). Elevated cross-validated risk was found for the 10% of TSMs at the highest predicted risk of homelessness (SN = 26.6%), 20% for SA (SN = 60.9%), and 10% for suicide death (SN = 34.1%). 28% of TSMs were in the highest risk categories for at least one and 10% for more than one outcome. Findings regarding incomplete overlap highlight the complexities of risk targeting when multiple outcomes are of interest.Npj mental health researchJoint models targeting U.S. Army soldiers at high-risk of post-separation unemployment, homelessness, and suicide-related behaviors.PMC12901102HU0001-15-2-0004U01MH087981Project SPR-002-24FLiu HNock MKKennedy CJNaifeh JAStein MBGeraci JCWagner JCapaldi VFLuedtke AHwang ISampson NAGildea SMBenedek DMKessler RCEdwards ERBorowski SUrsano RJfalseJoint models targeting U.S. Army soldiers at high-risk of post-separation unemployment, homelessness, and suicide-related behaviors.Transitioning service members (TSMs) leaving military service have high risks of unemployment, homelessness, nonfatal suicide attempt (SA), and suicide death. Data from n = 7188 recently separated TSMs from the U.S. Army were used to update previously developed models for post-separation homelessness and SA based on data at the time of separation and to develop a new unemployment model. Predicted probabilities of suicide from a model developed elsewhere were imputed for comparison purposes. Cross-validated predictions were significant for the homelessness (AU-ROC = 0.68) and SA (AU-ROC = 0.78) models but not the unemployment model (AU-ROC = 0.60). Elevated cross-validated risk was found for the 10% of TSMs at the highest predicted risk of homelessness (SN = 26.6%), 20% for SA (SN = 60.9%), and 10% for suicide death (SN = 34.1%). 28% of TSMs were in the highest risk categories for at least one and 10% for more than one outcome. Findings regarding incomplete overlap highlight the complexities of risk targeting when multiple outcomes are of interest.2026-01-01T00:00:00Z2026 Feb2026-07-07T03:12:57.116Z2026-07-07T03:08:32.707ZS-EPMC129011024168046110.1038/s44184-026-00192-8