biostudies-literatureWei LNatural Science Foundation of Shaanxi ProvinceNational Natural Science Foundation Incubation Project of Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital37https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC12906035biostudies-literatureUnknown84(1)<h4>Background</h4>Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a major public health burden in Hong Kong. Although screening programs and lifestyle changes have contributed to recent declines in age-standardized rates, the absolute burden continues to rise due to rapid population aging. A comprehensive understanding of long-term trends and their demographic drivers is essential for future cancer control planning. This study aimed to comprehensively assess long-term CRC incidence trends in Hong Kong and to project the future disease burden.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed CRC incidence data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1983-2022). Crude and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated by sex and age group. Temporal patterns were assessed using age-period-cohort models, future incidence was projecArchives of public health = Archives belges de sante publiqueUnraveling colorectal cancer incidence dynamics in Hong Kong 1983-2032 through age-period-cohort Bayesian projection and decomposition analysis.PMC129060352021JM-580SC222712Li SLiang MHan ZDu JSun HWei LfalseUnraveling colorectal cancer incidence dynamics in Hong Kong 1983-2032 through age-period-cohort Bayesian projection and decomposition analysis.<h4>Background</h4>Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a major public health burden in Hong Kong. Although screening programs and lifestyle changes have contributed to recent declines in age-standardized rates, the absolute burden continues to rise due to rapid population aging. A comprehensive understanding of long-term trends and their demographic drivers is essential for future cancer control planning. This study aimed to comprehensively assess long-term CRC incidence trends in Hong Kong and to project the future disease burden.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed CRC incidence data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1983-2022). Crude and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated by sex and age group. Temporal patterns were assessed using age-period-cohort models, future incidence was projec2026-01-01T00:00:00Z2026 Jan2026-07-15T16:28:48.254Z2026-07-07T03:08:03.468ZS-EPMC129060354156646410.1186/s13690-026-01841-2