biostudies-literatureMaguire KCDivision of Environmental Biology20152817https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC4810853biostudies-literatureUnknown283(1826)Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs inProceedings. Biological sciencesControlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities.PMC4810853DEB-1257508DEB-1257164DEB-1257033Nieto-Lugilde DWilliams JWFitzpatrick MCMaguire KCBlois JLFerrier SLorenz DJfalseControlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities.Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in2016-01-01T00:00:00Z2016 Mar2025-04-22T12:06:11.011Z2019-03-26T22:42:37ZS-EPMC48108532696214310.1098/rspb.2015.2817