biostudies-literaturePigott DMMedical Research CouncilWellcome Trust2662-2672https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC5735217biostudies-literatureUnknown390(10113)<h4>Background</h4>Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.<h4>Methods</h4>In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to defiLancet (London, England)Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis.PMC5735217095066106866/Z/15/ZMR/K010174/1B206471/Z/17/ZFullman NShearer FMLetourneau IMoyes CLKuhn JHMurray CJLBhatt SGolding NMorozoff CPiot PDe Groeve TBiehl MHNg EHay SIReiner RCDeshpande ABrent SEBurstein RBrady OJCaley LEarl LTatem AJPigott DMMylne AQNHorby PGething PWMessina JPVernaccini LBogoch IIKhan KSankoh OWeiss DJLaney SJKraemer MUGfalseLocal, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis.<h4>Background</h4>Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.<h4>Methods</h4>In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to defi2017-01-01T00:00:00Z2017 Dec2025-04-26T14:56:04.356Z2019-03-27T03:05:08ZS-EPMC57352172903184810.1016/S0140-6736(17)32092-5