biostudies-literatureHolmberg DVetenskapsrådetCancerfonden2901-2908https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC6684532biostudies-literatureUnknown33(9)<h4>Background</h4>Individuals with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at increased risk of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), but the cost-effectiveness of general surveillance of BE is low. This study aimed to identify a risk prediction model for tumor progression in individuals with BE based on age, sex, and risk factors found at upper endoscopy, enabling tailored surveillance.<h4>Methods</h4>This nested case-control study originated from a cohort of 8171 adults diagnosed with BE in 2006-2013 in the Swedish Patient Registry. Cases had EAC/HGD (n = 279) as identified from the Swedish Cancer Registry, whereas controls had no EAC/HGD (n = 1089). Findings from endoscopy and histopathology reports were extracted from medical records at 71 Swedish hospitals and from theSurgical endoscopyClinical prediction model for tumor progression in Barrett's esophagus.PMC6684532CAN 2015/460E0253601D0547801Lagergren JHolmberg DNess-Jensen EMattsson FfalseClinical prediction model for tumor progression in Barrett's esophagus.<h4>Background</h4>Individuals with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at increased risk of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), but the cost-effectiveness of general surveillance of BE is low. This study aimed to identify a risk prediction model for tumor progression in individuals with BE based on age, sex, and risk factors found at upper endoscopy, enabling tailored surveillance.<h4>Methods</h4>This nested case-control study originated from a cohort of 8171 adults diagnosed with BE in 2006-2013 in the Swedish Patient Registry. Cases had EAC/HGD (n = 279) as identified from the Swedish Cancer Registry, whereas controls had no EAC/HGD (n = 1089). Findings from endoscopy and histopathology reports were extracted from medical records at 71 Swedish hospitals and from the2019-01-01T00:00:00Z2019 Sep2025-04-05T10:42:50.185Z2019-08-28T07:02:34ZS-EPMC66845323045650310.1007/s00464-018-6590-5