biostudies-literatureWang LAgency for Healthcare Research and QualityNIDA NIH HHSFoundation for the National Institutes of HealthHealth Resources and Services AdministrationNational Institutes of HealthNational Institute on Drug AbuseSimon Fraser Universitye531-e539https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC6693664biostudies-literatureUnknown6(8)<h4>Background</h4>Accurately estimating HIV disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can help inform interventions to control HIV microepidemics and mathematical models used to inform health-resource allocation decisions. Our objective was to estimate the monthly probabilities of on-ART CD4 T-cell count progression, mortality, ART dropout, and ART reinitiation using a continuous-time multistate Markov model. We also aimed to validate health-state transition probability estimates to ensure they accurately reproduced the regional HIV microepidemics across the USA.<h4>Methods</h4>In our modelling study, we considered a cohort of patients from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of 17 adult and paediatric HIV-care providers located in the northeastern (n=8), southeThe lancet. HIVCombined estimation of disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy among treated individuals with HIV in the USA: a modelling study.PMC6693664R01 DA041747HHSA290201100007CR01DA041747-02S1HHSH250201600009CGebo KAKorthuis PTMathews WCMayer KDiaz-Reyes RAgwu AKrebs EGaur AKeruly JVoss CWang LHellinger FBeil RUrbina AValenti WRutstein RMoore RDAberg JABoswell SAkbar MNijhawan ASomboonwit CBaranoski AFelsen UMin JECollins CFleishman JMills REdelstein HNosyk BHIV Research NetworkAllen SfalseCombined estimation of disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy among treated individuals with HIV in the USA: a modelling study.<h4>Background</h4>Accurately estimating HIV disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can help inform interventions to control HIV microepidemics and mathematical models used to inform health-resource allocation decisions. Our objective was to estimate the monthly probabilities of on-ART CD4 T-cell count progression, mortality, ART dropout, and ART reinitiation using a continuous-time multistate Markov model. We also aimed to validate health-state transition probability estimates to ensure they accurately reproduced the regional HIV microepidemics across the USA.<h4>Methods</h4>In our modelling study, we considered a cohort of patients from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of 17 adult and paediatric HIV-care providers located in the northeastern (n=8), southe2019-01-01T00:00:00Z2019 Aug2025-04-29T10:31:16.136Z2020-10-04T07:16:39ZS-EPMC66936643130355710.1016/S2352-3018(19)30148-110.1016/s2352-3018(19)30148-1