{"database":"biostudies-literature","file_versions":[],"scores":null,"additional":{"submitter":["Roche KR"],"funding":["National Science Foundation"],"pagination":["1935-1940"],"full_dataset_link":["https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC6994975"],"repository":["biostudies-literature"],"omics_type":["Unknown"],"volume":["117(4)"],"pubmed_abstract":["A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships-is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect mo"],"journal":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"],"pubmed_title":["Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict."],"pmcid":["PMC6994975"],"funding_grant_id":["ICER 1824951"],"pubmed_authors":["Muller-Itten M","Dralle DN","Bolster D","Muller MF","Roche KR"],"additional_accession":[]},"is_claimable":false,"name":"Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict.","description":"A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships-is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect mo","dates":{"release":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","publication":"2020 Jan","modification":"2025-04-06T15:16:55.143Z","creation":"2025-04-06T15:16:55.143Z"},"accession":"S-EPMC6994975","cross_references":{"pubmed":["31932433"],"doi":["10.1073/pnas.1914829117"]}}