biostudies-literatureHu ZNational Natural Science Foundation of P.R. China231-240https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC7175914biostudies-literatureUnknown95In this study, an epidemic model was developed to simulate and predict the disease variations of Guangdong province which was focused on the period from Jan 27 to Feb 20, 2020. To explore the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies on the disease variations at different scenarios, four time points were assumed as Feb 6, Feb 16, Feb 24 and Mar 5 2020. The major results suggest that our model can well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The simulated peak value of the confirmed cases is 1002 at Feb 10, 2020 which is mostly close to the reported number of 1007 at Feb 9, 2020. The disease will become extinction with peak value of 1397 at May 11, 2020. Moreover, the increased numbers of the input population can mainly shorten the disease extinction days and the International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious DiseasesEvaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China.PMC717591411771373Sha WEIHu ZHan JWang XTeng ZCui QfalseEvaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China.In this study, an epidemic model was developed to simulate and predict the disease variations of Guangdong province which was focused on the period from Jan 27 to Feb 20, 2020. To explore the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies on the disease variations at different scenarios, four time points were assumed as Feb 6, Feb 16, Feb 24 and Mar 5 2020. The major results suggest that our model can well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The simulated peak value of the confirmed cases is 1002 at Feb 10, 2020 which is mostly close to the reported number of 1007 at Feb 9, 2020. The disease will become extinction with peak value of 1397 at May 11, 2020. Moreover, the increased numbers of the input population can mainly shorten the disease extinction days and the 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z2020 Jun2025-05-29T21:15:20.892Z2025-05-29T21:15:20.892ZS-EPMC71759143233411710.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.010