biostudies-literatureUnknown10(3)Van Hemelrijck M<h4>Background</h4>Signs of disease progression (28%) and conversion to active treatment without evidence of disease progression (13%) are the main reasons for discontinuation of active surveillance (AS) in men with localised prostate cancer (PCa). We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict disease progression in these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>As a first step in the development of a nomogram, using data from Movembers' GAP3 Consortium (n=14,380), we assessed heterogeneity between centres in terms of risk of disease progression. We started with assessment of baseline hazards for disease progression based on grouping of centres according to follow-up protocols [high: yearly; intermediate: ~2 yearly; and low: at year 1, 4 & 7 (i.e., PRIAS)]. We conducted cause-specific random effect Cox proporTranslational andrology and urology1102-1109https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC8039580biostudies-literatureA first step towards a global nomogram to predict disease progression for men on active surveillance.PMC8039580de Jonge CTolosa EAuvinen APatil DGuo WOlivier JGnanapragasam VBuzza MXinge JCarter BZhang LLophatananon ABenfante NHelleman JLehmann KHirama HMamedov ASugimoto MHugosson JRancati TKouspou Mvan der Linden WLogothetis CChung BHKattan MDasgupta PMovember Foundation’s Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance (GAP3) ConsortiumFahey MCrump TLofgren AHefermehl Lvan der Kwast TFilson Cvan Bochove KCarroll PRoobol MJBjartell AStavrinides VKakehi YTrock BObbink HKim JHulsen TKimberly-Duffell JRoobol MKlotz LBangma CPickles TVan Hemelrijck MRannikko ALee LSHyndman ERubio-Briones JSteyerberg ENieboer DEhdaie BMuir KVillers ALaPointe VLin CHHaider MCowan JFrydenberg MKattan MWPerry AGledhill SBruinsma SLee KSShiong LLJenster GJi XAhlgren HMascaros JMorgan TMoore CSantaolalla AValdagni RKim TKfalseA first step towards a global nomogram to predict disease progression for men on active surveillance.<h4>Background</h4>Signs of disease progression (28%) and conversion to active treatment without evidence of disease progression (13%) are the main reasons for discontinuation of active surveillance (AS) in men with localised prostate cancer (PCa). We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict disease progression in these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>As a first step in the development of a nomogram, using data from Movembers' GAP3 Consortium (n=14,380), we assessed heterogeneity between centres in terms of risk of disease progression. We started with assessment of baseline hazards for disease progression based on grouping of centres according to follow-up protocols [high: yearly; intermediate: ~2 yearly; and low: at year 1, 4 & 7 (i.e., PRIAS)]. We conducted cause-specific random effect Cox propor2021-01-01T00:00:00Z2021 Mar2025-04-27T00:07:25.947Z2025-04-06T17:48:29.327ZS-EPMC80395803385074510.21037/tau-20-1082