biostudies-literatureBassett IVNIMH NIH HHS1543-1550https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC8088454biostudies-literatureUnknown33(12)Changes in an individual's contextual factors following HIV diagnosis may influence long-term outcomes. We evaluated how changes to contextual factors between HIV diagnosis and 9-month follow-up predict 5-year mortality among HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa enrolled in the Sizanani Trial (NCT01188941). We used random survival forests to identify 9-month variables and changes from baseline predictive of time to mortality. We incorporated these into a Cox proportional hazards model including age, sex, and starting ART by 9 months <i>a priori</i>, 9-month social support and competing needs, and changes in mental health between baseline and 9 months. Among 1,154 participants with South African ID numbers, 900 (78%) had baseline and 9-month data available of whom 109 (12%) died after 9-month follow-up. Those who reported less social support at 9 months had a 16% higher risk of mortality. Participants who went without basic needs or healthcare at 9 months had a 2.6 times higher hazard of death compared to participants who did not. Low social support and competing needs at 9-month follow-up substantially increase long-term mortality risk. Reassessing contextual factors during follow-up and targeting interventions to increase social support and affordability of care may reduce long-term mortality for HIV-infected individuals in South Africa.AIDS careChanging contextual factors from baseline to 9-months post-HIV diagnosis predict 5-year mortality in Durban, South Africa.PMC8088454R01 MH108427R01 MH090326Millham LBogart LMBoulle ALosina EBassett IVGiddy JXu AParker RAfalseChanging contextual factors from baseline to 9-months post-HIV diagnosis predict 5-year mortality in Durban, South Africa.Changes in an individual's contextual factors following HIV diagnosis may influence long-term outcomes. We evaluated how changes to contextual factors between HIV diagnosis and 9-month follow-up predict 5-year mortality among HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa enrolled in the Sizanani Trial (NCT01188941). We used random survival forests to identify 9-month variables and changes from baseline predictive of time to mortality. We incorporated these into a Cox proportional hazards model including age, sex, and starting ART by 9 months <i>a priori</i>, 9-month social support and competing needs, and changes in mental health between baseline and 9 months. Among 1,154 participants with South African ID numbers, 900 (78%) had baseline and 9-month data available of whom 109 (12%) died after 9-month follow-up. Those who reported less social support at 9 months had a 16% higher risk of mortality. Participants who went without basic needs or healthcare at 9 months had a 2.6 times higher hazard of death compared to participants who did not. Low social support and competing needs at 9-month follow-up substantially increase long-term mortality risk. Reassessing contextual factors during follow-up and targeting interventions to increase social support and affordability of care may reduce long-term mortality for HIV-infected individuals in South Africa.2021-01-01T00:00:00Z2021 Dec2024-11-09T03:17:20.398Z2024-11-09T03:17:20.398ZS-EPMC80884543313863010.1080/09540121.2020.1837338