biostudies-literatureJoshi KNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseasese25818https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC8528667biostudies-literatureUnknown24(10)<h4>Introduction</h4>UNAIDS models suggest HIV incidence is declining in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to assess whether modelled trends are supported by empirical evidence.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of adult HIV incidence data from sub-Saharan Africa by searching Embase, Scopus, PubMed and OVID databases and technical reports published between 1 January 2010 and 23 July 2019. We included prospective and cross-sectional studies that directly measured incidence from blood samples. Incidence data were abstracted according to population risk group, geographic location, sex, intervention arm and calendar period. Weighted regression models were used to assess incidence trends across general population studies by sex. We also identifiJournal of the International AIDS SocietyDeclining HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of empiric data.PMC8528667K01AI125086R01AI128779R01AI120938Bushey SOlawore OJoshi KLessler JTobian AARLoevinsohn GGrabowski MKfalseDeclining HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of empiric data.<h4>Introduction</h4>UNAIDS models suggest HIV incidence is declining in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to assess whether modelled trends are supported by empirical evidence.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of adult HIV incidence data from sub-Saharan Africa by searching Embase, Scopus, PubMed and OVID databases and technical reports published between 1 January 2010 and 23 July 2019. We included prospective and cross-sectional studies that directly measured incidence from blood samples. Incidence data were abstracted according to population risk group, geographic location, sex, intervention arm and calendar period. Weighted regression models were used to assess incidence trends across general population studies by sex. We also identifi2021-01-01T00:00:00Z2021 Oct2025-04-19T05:02:01.738Z2025-04-19T05:02:01.738ZS-EPMC85286673467210410.1002/jia2.25818