biostudies-literatureTedijanto CNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesNational Eye InstituteNEI NIH HHSResearch to Prevent BlindnessNIAID NIH HHSe0010273https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC8942265biostudies-literatureUnknown16(3)Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. APLoS neglected tropical diseasesPredicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological, clinical, molecular, and geospatial data.PMC8942265UG1 EY023939Unrestricted GrantR03 AI147128U10 EY023939Tedijanto CArnold BFTadesse ZWittberg DMAragie SGwyn SHaile MMartin DLSturrock HJWNash SDLietman TMZeru TKeenan JDfalsePredicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological, clinical, molecular, and geospatial data.Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. A2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Mar2026-05-30T23:54:45.578Z2025-04-04T23:32:59.491ZS-EPMC89422653527591110.1371/journal.pntd.0010273