biostudies-literatureLandis MJEC | Horizon 2020National Science Foundatione2116948119https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC9060446biostudies-literatureUnknown119(13)SignificanceGeography molds how species evolve in space. Strong geographical barriers to movement, for instance, both inhibit dispersal between regions and allow isolated populations to diverge as new species. Weak barriers, by contrast, permit species range expansion and persistence. These factors present a conundrum: How strong must a barrier be before between-region speciation outpaces dispersal? We designed a phylogenetic model of dispersal, extinction, and speciation that allows regional features to influence rates of biogeographic change and applied it to the neotropical radiation of <i>Anolis</i> lizards. Separation by water induces a threefold steeper barrier to movement than equivalent distances over land. Our model will help biologists detect relationships between evolutionary prProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaPhylogenetic inference of where species spread or split across barriers.PMC9060446897225DEB-2040081DEB-2040347Quintero IMunoz MMLandis MJZapata FDonoghue MJfalsePhylogenetic inference of where species spread or split across barriers.SignificanceGeography molds how species evolve in space. Strong geographical barriers to movement, for instance, both inhibit dispersal between regions and allow isolated populations to diverge as new species. Weak barriers, by contrast, permit species range expansion and persistence. These factors present a conundrum: How strong must a barrier be before between-region speciation outpaces dispersal? We designed a phylogenetic model of dispersal, extinction, and speciation that allows regional features to influence rates of biogeographic change and applied it to the neotropical radiation of <i>Anolis</i> lizards. Separation by water induces a threefold steeper barrier to movement than equivalent distances over land. Our model will help biologists detect relationships between evolutionary pr2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Mar2026-03-15T19:14:51.762Z2025-04-07T00:29:49.825ZS-EPMC90604463533365010.1073/pnas.2116948119