biostudies-literatureUnknown26Ng CS<h4>Background</h4>Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption.<h4>Methods</h4>We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions.<h4>Findings</h4>An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men.<h4>Interpretation</h4>Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease.<h4>Funding</h4>Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067].The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific100510https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC9250035biostudies-literatureThe impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study.PMC9250035Ma RQuan JNg CSAu MLeung JYYfalseThe impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study.<h4>Background</h4>Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption.<h4>Methods</h4>We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions.<h4>Findings</h4>An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men.<h4>Interpretation</h4>Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease.<h4>Funding</h4>Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067].2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Sep2024-02-15T20:56:10.96Z2022-07-08T16:12:04.667ZS-EPMC92500353578982710.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100510