biostudies-literatureUnknown5(1)Toreti ABuilding a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021-2040, ranges from -7.8% to -5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may comeCommunications biology1235https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC9653372biostudies-literatureClimate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture.PMC9653372Toreti AZampieri MBassu SRoyo CAsseng SCeglar AfalseClimate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture.Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021-2040, ranges from -7.8% to -5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Nov2025-04-25T23:40:47.817Z2025-04-06T09:25:02.771ZS-EPMC96533723637154010.1038/s42003-022-04189-9