biostudies-literatureUnknown12(1)Kaiho KThere have been five major mass extinctions and some minor mass extinctions of animals since early animal diversification 540-520 Myr ago. It is said that a sixth mass extinction is already underway. However, the future extinction magnitude has not been quantitatively estimated. Here, I show that the sixth major mass extinction (defined as > 60% species loss) will be avoided, but a minor mass extinction, 20-50% animal species loss (1% now), will occur when humans cause nuclear war and/or fail to stop increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, pollution, and deforestation until 2060-2080 CE. When humans decrease GHG emissions, pollution, and deforestation in 40 years and prevent nuclear war in the future, 10-15% animal species loss will occur. Humans should stop not only industrial GHG emisScientific reports19593https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC9684554biostudies-literatureExtinction magnitude of animals in the near future.PMC9684554Kaiho KfalseExtinction magnitude of animals in the near future.There have been five major mass extinctions and some minor mass extinctions of animals since early animal diversification 540-520 Myr ago. It is said that a sixth mass extinction is already underway. However, the future extinction magnitude has not been quantitatively estimated. Here, I show that the sixth major mass extinction (defined as > 60% species loss) will be avoided, but a minor mass extinction, 20-50% animal species loss (1% now), will occur when humans cause nuclear war and/or fail to stop increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, pollution, and deforestation until 2060-2080 CE. When humans decrease GHG emissions, pollution, and deforestation in 40 years and prevent nuclear war in the future, 10-15% animal species loss will occur. Humans should stop not only industrial GHG emis2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Nov2025-04-18T15:00:08.78Z2025-04-07T01:26:27.383ZS-EPMC96845543641834010.1038/s41598-022-23369-5