biostudies-literatureUnknown116(Pt 2)Fabbri C<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic could increase violence against children at home. However, collecting empirical data on violence is challenging due to ethical, safety, and data quality concerns.<h4>Objective</h4>This study estimated the anticipated effect of COVID-19 on violent discipline at home using multivariable predictive regression models.<h4>Participants</h4>Children aged 1-14 years and household members from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Nigeria, Mongolia, and Suriname before the COVID-19 pandemic were included.<h4>Methods</h4>A conceptual model of how the COVID-19 pandemic could affect risk factors for violent discipline was developed. Country specific multivariable linear models were used to estimate the association between selected variables from MICS and a violent discipline score which captured the average combination of violent disciplinary methods used in the home. A review of the literature informed the development of quantitative assumptions about how COVID-19 would impact the selected variables under a "high restrictions" pandemic scenario, approximating conditions expected during a period of intense response measures, and a "lower restrictions" scenario with easing of COVID-19 restrictions but with sustained economic impacts. These assumptions were used to estimate changes in violent discipline scores.<h4>Results</h4>Under a "high restrictions" scenario there would be a 35%-46% increase in violent discipline scores in Nigeria, Mongolia and Suriname, and under a "lower restrictions" scenario there would be between a 4%-6% increase in violent discipline scores in these countries.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Policy makers need to plan for increases in violent discipline during successive waves of lockdowns.Child abuse & neglect104897https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC9754318biostudies-literatureModelling the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent discipline against children.PMC9754318Cappa CFabbri CJugder MPetzold MDevries KGuedes ABhatia AfalseModelling the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent discipline against children.<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 pandemic could increase violence against children at home. However, collecting empirical data on violence is challenging due to ethical, safety, and data quality concerns.<h4>Objective</h4>This study estimated the anticipated effect of COVID-19 on violent discipline at home using multivariable predictive regression models.<h4>Participants</h4>Children aged 1-14 years and household members from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Nigeria, Mongolia, and Suriname before the COVID-19 pandemic were included.<h4>Methods</h4>A conceptual model of how the COVID-19 pandemic could affect risk factors for violent discipline was developed. Country specific multivariable linear models were used to estimate the association between selected variables from MICS and a violent discipline score which captured the average combination of violent disciplinary methods used in the home. A review of the literature informed the development of quantitative assumptions about how COVID-19 would impact the selected variables under a "high restrictions" pandemic scenario, approximating conditions expected during a period of intense response measures, and a "lower restrictions" scenario with easing of COVID-19 restrictions but with sustained economic impacts. These assumptions were used to estimate changes in violent discipline scores.<h4>Results</h4>Under a "high restrictions" scenario there would be a 35%-46% increase in violent discipline scores in Nigeria, Mongolia and Suriname, and under a "lower restrictions" scenario there would be between a 4%-6% increase in violent discipline scores in these countries.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Policy makers need to plan for increases in violent discipline during successive waves of lockdowns.2021-01-01T00:00:00Z2021 Jun2026-05-13T16:04:25.025Z2025-04-04T19:10:54.968ZS-EPMC97543183345167810.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104897