biostudies-literatureBlock SSwiss National Science Foundation2156-2166https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/S-EPMC9804264biostudies-literatureUnknown25(10)Forecasting the trajectories of species assemblages in response to ongoing climate change requires quantifying the time lags in the demographic and ecological processes through which climate impacts species' abundances. Since experimental climate manipulations are typically abrupt, the observed species responses may not match their responses to gradual climate change. We addressed this problem by transplanting alpine grassland turfs to lower elevations, recording species' demographic responses to climate and competition, and using these data to parameterise community dynamics models forced by scenarios of gradual climate change. We found that shifts in community structure following an abrupt climate manipulation were not simply accelerated versions of shifts expected under gradual warming,Ecology lettersEcological lags govern the pace and outcome of plant community responses to 21st-century climate change.PMC9804264173210Levine JMBlock SMaechler MJAlexander JMPellissier LLevine JIfalseEcological lags govern the pace and outcome of plant community responses to 21st-century climate change.Forecasting the trajectories of species assemblages in response to ongoing climate change requires quantifying the time lags in the demographic and ecological processes through which climate impacts species' abundances. Since experimental climate manipulations are typically abrupt, the observed species responses may not match their responses to gradual climate change. We addressed this problem by transplanting alpine grassland turfs to lower elevations, recording species' demographic responses to climate and competition, and using these data to parameterise community dynamics models forced by scenarios of gradual climate change. We found that shifts in community structure following an abrupt climate manipulation were not simply accelerated versions of shifts expected under gradual warming,2022-01-01T00:00:00Z2022 Oct2025-04-05T12:09:48.061Z2025-04-05T12:09:48.061ZS-EPMC98042643602846410.1111/ele.14087