biostudies-otherUnknown117Lucian SmithProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America16732-16738Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/MODEL2008070001biostudies-other32616574Lucian SmithKausthubh RamachandranfalseBertozzi2020 - SIR model of scenarios of COVID-19 spread in CA and NYThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.2020-08-07T00:00:00Z2025-07-15T09:46:38.087Z2025-03-29T22:19:50.062ZMODEL2008070001BIOMD000000095632616574C128320NCIT:C43509NCIT:C171133C25746NCIT:C43468MAMO_00000280000503000051400005110000621DOID:008060096062697049