biostudies-otherUnknown10Lucian SmithScientific reports21721Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2https://www.ebi.ac.uk/biostudies/studies/MODEL2012240001biostudies-other33303925Lucian SmithKausthubh RamachandranfalseLaw2020 - SIR model of COVID-19 transmission in Malyasia with time-varying parametersThe susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, [Formula: see text] and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.2020-12-24T00:00:00Z2025-07-15T09:45:39.977Z2025-03-29T22:22:55.917ZMODEL2012240001BIOMD000000098233303925C128320NCIT:C16814NCIT:C171133C25746MAMO_0000028000051400005110000621DOID:008060096062697049