Name: Bertozzi2020 - SIR model of scenarios of COVID-19 spread in CA and NY
Keywords: COVID-19

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Bertozzi2020 - SIR model of scenarios of COVID-19 spread in CA and NY

ABSTRACT: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.

DISEASE(S): Covid-19

SUBMITTER: Kausthubh Ramachandran

PROVIDER: BIOMD0000000956 | BioModels | 2020-10-05

REPOSITORIES: BioModels

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The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

Bertozzi Andrea L AL Franco Elisa E Mohler George G Short Martin B MB Sledge Daniel D

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200702 29

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how th ...[more]

PMID: 32616574

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