Name: Paiva2020 - SEIAHRD model of transmission dynamics of COVID-19
Keywords: COVID-19

Dataset Information

Paiva2020 - SEIAHRD model of transmission dynamics of COVID-19

ABSTRACT: This paper proposes a dynamic model to describe and forecast the dynamics of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 transmission. The model is based on an approach previously used to describe the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) epidemic. This methodology is used to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in six countries where the pandemic is widely spread, namely China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the USA. For this purpose, data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) are adopted. It is shown how the model can be used to forecast new infection cases and new deceased and how the uncertainties associated to this prediction can be quantified. This approach has the advantage of being relatively simple, grouping in few mathematical parameters the many conditions which affect the spreading of the disease. On the other hand, it requires previous data from the disease transmission in the country, being better suited for regions where the epidemic is not at a very early stage. With the estimated parameters at hand, one can use the model to predict the evolution of the disease, which in turn enables authorities to plan their actions. Moreover, one key advantage is the straightforward interpretation of these parameters and their influence over the evolution of the disease, which enables altering some of them, so that one can evaluate the effect of public policy, such as social distancing. The results presented for the selected countries confirm the accuracy to perform predictions.

DISEASE(S): Covid-19

SUBMITTER: Kausthubh Ramachandran

PROVIDER: BIOMD0000000960 | BioModels | 2020-10-05

REPOSITORIES: BioModels

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Publications

A data-driven model to describe and forecast the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission.

Paiva Henrique Mohallem HM Afonso Rubens Junqueira Magalhães RJM de Oliveira Igor Luppi IL Garcia Gabriele Fernandes GF

PloS one 20200731 7

This paper proposes a dynamic model to describe and forecast the dynamics of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 transmission. The model is based on an approach previously used to describe the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) epidemic. This methodology is used to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in six countries where the pandemic is widely spread, namely China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the USA. For this purpose, data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) ...[more]

PMID: 32735581

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Project description:Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. Methods: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Results: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. Conclusions: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.

Project description:Background - The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in China and more than 30 countries over last two months. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed number of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of implemented quarantine and control measures. Methods - We develop a Susceptible, Un-quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models. Results - The SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of the confirmed infections to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), China (excluding Hubei) and four first-tier cities of China. We found that, before January 30, 2020, all these regions except Beijing had a reproductive number R &gt; 1, and after January 30, all regions had a reproductive number R lesser than 1, indicating that the quarantine and control measures are effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19. The confirmation rate of Wuhan estimated by our model is 0.0643, substantially lower than that of Hubei excluding Wuhan (0.1914), and that of China excluding Hubei (0.2189), but it jumps to 0.3229 after February 12 when clinical evidence was adopted in new diagnosis guidelines. The number of unquarantined infected cases in Wuhan on February 12, 2020 is estimated to be 3,509 and declines to 334 on February 21, 2020. After fitting the model with data as of February 21, 2020, we predict that the end time of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei is around late March, around mid March for China excluding Hubei, and before early March 2020 for the four tier-one cities. A total of 80,511 individuals are estimated to be infected in China, among which 49,510 are from Wuhan, 17,679 from Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13,322 from other regions of China (excluding Hubei). Note that the estimates are from a deterministic ODE model and should be interpreted with some uncertainty. Conclusions - We suggest that rigorous quarantine and control measures should be kept before early March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late March in Hubei. The model can also be useful to predict the trend of epidemic and provide quantitative guide for other countries at high risk of outbreak, such as South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran.

Dataset Information

Paiva2020 - SEIAHRD model of transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Publications

A data-driven model to describe and forecast the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission.

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