Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To make projections of cigarette consumption that incorporate state-specific trends in smoking behaviors, assess the potential for states to reach an ideal target, and identify State-specific targets for cigarette consumption.

Methods

We used 70 years (1950-2020) of annual state-specific estimates of per capita cigarette consumption (expressed as packs per capita or "ppc") from the Tax Burden on Tobacco reports (N = 3550). We summarized trends within each state by linear regression models and the variation in rates across states by the Gini coefficient. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to make state-specific forecasts of ppc from 2021 through 2035.

Results

Since 1980, the average rate of decline in US per capita cigarette co

SUBMITTER: Leas EC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10010542 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature