Direct Incorporation of Expert Opinion into Parametric Survival Models to Inform Survival Extrapolation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In decision modeling with time-to-event data, there are a variety of parametric models that can be used to extrapolate the survival function. Each model implies a different hazard function, and in situations in which there is moderate censoring, this can result in quite different survival projections. External information such as expert opinion on long-term survival can more accurately characterize the uncertainty in these extrapolations.

Objective

We present a general and easily implementable approach to incorporate various types of expert opinions into parametric survival models, focusing on opinions about survival at various landmark time points.

Methods

Expert opinion is incorporated into parametric survival models using Bayesian and frequentist approac

SUBMITTER: Cooney P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10021125 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature