Data-driven scenario-based model projections and management of the May 2021 COVID-19 resurgence in India.

ABSTRACT: The resurgence of the May 2021 COVID-19 wave in India not only pointed to the explosive speed with which SARS-CoV-2 can spread in vulnerable populations if unchecked, but also to the gross misreading of the status of the pandemic when decisions to reopen the economy were made in March 2021. In this combined modelling and scenario-based analysis, we isolated the population and policy-related factors underlying the May 2021 viral resurgence by projecting the growth and magnitude of the health impact and demand for hospital care that would have arisen if the spread was not impeded, and by evaluating the intervention options best able to curb the observed rapidly developing contagion. We show that only by immediately re-introducing a moderately high level of social mitigation over a medium-ter

SUBMITTER: Michael E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10021811 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature