Prediction of dengue annual incidence using seasonal climate variability in Bangladesh between 2000 and 2018.

ABSTRACT: The incidence of dengue has increased rapidly in Bangladesh since 2010 with an outbreak in 2018 reaching a historically high number of cases, 10,148. A better understanding of the effects of climate variability before dengue season on the increasing incidence of dengue in Bangladesh can enable early warning of future outbreaks. We developed a generalized linear model to predict the number of annual dengue cases based on monthly minimum temperature, rainfall and sunshine prior to dengue season. Variable selection and leave-one-out cross-validation were performed to identify the best prediction model and to evaluate the model's performance. Our model successfully predicted the largest outbreak in 2018, with 10,077 cases (95% CI: [9,912-10,276]), in addition to smaller outbreaks in five diffe

SUBMITTER: Hossain MP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10021868 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature