Predictability of fossil fuel CO₂ from air quality emissions.

ABSTRACT: Quantifying the coevolution of greenhouse gases and air quality pollutants can provide insight into underlying anthropogenic processes enabling predictions of their emission trajectories. Here, we classify the dynamics of historic emissions in terms of a modified Environmental Kuznets Curve (MEKC), which postulates the coevolution of fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) and NOx emissions as a function of macroeconomic development. The MEKC broadly captures the historic FFCO₂-NO_x dynamical regimes for countries including the US, China, and India as well as IPCC scenarios. Given these dynamics, we find the predictive skill of FFCO2 given NO_x emissions constrained by satellite data is less than 2% error at one-year lags for many countries and less tha

SUBMITTER: Miyazaki K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10034258 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature