Climate change and Aedes albopictus risks in China: current impact and future projection.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Future distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models (GCMs). However, it is difficult to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertainty of the predictions. The observed changes in climate may be very different from the GCM results. We aim to utilize trends in observed climate dynamics to predict future risks of Aedes albopictus in China.

Methods

We collected Ae. albopictus surveillance data and observed climate records from 80 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2021. We analyzed the trends in climate change in China and made predictions on future climate for the years 2050 and 2080 based on trend analyses. We analyzed the relationship between climatic variables and the prevalence of Ae.

SUBMITTER: Liu H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10037799 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature