Hindcasts and forecasts of suicide mortality in US: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT: Deaths by suicide, as well as suicidal ideations, plans and attempts, have been increasing in the US for the past two decades. Deployment of effective interventions would require timely, geographically well-resolved estimates of suicide activity. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility of a two-step process for predicting suicide mortality: a) generation of hindcasts, mortality estimates for past months for which observational data would not have been available if forecasts were generated in real-time; and b) generation of forecasts with observational data augmented with hindcasts. Calls to crisis hotline services and online queries to the Google search engine for suicide-related terms were used as proxy data sources to generate hindcasts. The primary hindcast model (auto) is an Autore

SUBMITTER: Kandula S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10047563 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature