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Mortality postponement and compression at older ages in human cohorts.

ABSTRACT: A key but unresolved issue in the study of human mortality at older ages is whether mortality is being compressed (which implies that we may be approaching a maximum limit to the length of life) or postponed (which would imply that we are not). We analyze historical and current population mortality data between ages 50 and 100 by birth cohort in 19 currently-industrialized countries, using a Bayesian technique to surmount cohort censoring caused by survival, to show that while the dominant historical pattern has been one of mortality compression, there have been occasional episodes of mortality postponement. The pattern of postponement and compression across different birth cohorts explain why longevity records have been slow to increase in recent years: we find that cohorts born between around 1900 and 1950 are experiencing historically unprecedented mortality postponement, but are still too young to break longevity records. As these cohorts attain advanced ages in coming decades, longevity records may therefore increase significantly. Our results confirm prior work suggesting that if there is a maximum limit to the human lifespan, we are not yet approaching it.

SUBMITTER: McCarthy D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10057846 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mortality postponement and compression at older ages in human cohorts.

McCarthy David D Wang Po-Lin PL

PloS one 20230329 3

A key but unresolved issue in the study of human mortality at older ages is whether mortality is being compressed (which implies that we may be approaching a maximum limit to the length of life) or postponed (which would imply that we are not). We analyze historical and current population mortality data between ages 50 and 100 by birth cohort in 19 currently-industrialized countries, using a Bayesian technique to surmount cohort censoring caused by survival, to show that while the dominant histo ...[more]

PMID: 36989241

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Project description:Background and objectivesIt is widely recognized that survey satisficing, inattentive, or careless responding in questionnaires reduce the quality of self-report data. In this study, we propose that such low-quality responding (LQR) can carry substantive meaning at older ages. Completing questionnaires is a cognitively demanding task and LQR among older adults may reflect early signals of cognitive deficits and pathological aging. We hypothesized that older people displaying greater LQR would show faster cognitive decline and greater mortality risk.Research design and methodsWe analyzed data from 9, 288 adults 65 years or older in the Health and Retirement Study. Indicators of LQR were derived from participants' response patterns in 102 psychosocial questionnaire items administered in 2006-2008. Latent growth models examined whether LQR predicted initial status and change in cognitive functioning, assessed with the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status, over the subsequent 10 years. Discrete-time survival models examined whether LQR was associated with mortality risk over the 10 years. We also examined evidence for indirect (mediated) effects in which LQR predicts mortality via cognitive trajectories.ResultsAfter adjusting for age, gender, race, marital status, education, health conditions, smoking status, physical activity, and depressive symptoms, greater LQR was cross-sectionally associated with poorer cognitive functioning, and prospectively associated with faster cognitive decline over the follow-up period. Furthermore, greater LQR was associated with increased mortality risk during follow-up, and this effect was partially accounted for by the associations between LQR and cognitive functioning.Discussion and implicationsSelf-report questionnaires are not formally designed as cognitive tasks, but this study shows that LQR indicators derived from self-report measures provide objective, performance-based information about individuals' cognitive functioning and survival. Self-report surveys are ubiquitous in social science, and indicators of LQR may be of broad relevance as predictors of cognitive and health trajectories in older people.

Project description:ImportanceNoncognitive life skills are patterns of behavior, thoughts, and feelings that complement cognitive ability in promoting positive economic and educational outcomes. These positive attributes have been associated with favorable social and health outcomes at older ages, but their combined association with survival is not known.ObjectivesTo evaluate the association of the combination of 5 noncognitive life skills with mortality, and to explore the role of sociodemographic, health, cognitive, and behavioral factors in explaining associations.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from wave 5 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, conducted in 2010. Participants included adults 52 years and older. Associations of scores on 5 noncognitive life skills, including conscientiousness, perseverance, emotional stability, optimism, and control, with all-cause mortality were analyzed for a mean (SD) of 7.2 (1.3) years. Data analyses were completed in November 2019.ExposuresResponse to wave 5 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.Main outcomes and measuresNoncognitive life skills scores, including conscientiousness, perseverance, emotional stability, optimism, and control, were measured by questionnaire. The main outcome was all-cause mortality, and the associations with noncognitive life skills scores were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regressions models to estimate hazard ratios per 1-SD increase in score.ResultsA total of 7850 participants (mean [SD] age, 66.5 [9.0] years; 4333 [55.2%] women) were included. Combined life skill score was positively associated with survival, with a hazard ratio of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90) per 1-SD increase in positive attributes after adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood socioeconomic status, educational attainment, baseline chronic disease, depressive symptoms, cognitive function, mobility impairment, social isolation, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and fruit and vegetable consumption (P < .001). Excluding deaths during 24 months after baseline as a check for reverse causation showed the same pattern (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.89; P < .001). Associations were maintained after each life skill was omitted in turn from the aggregate score, indicating that no single positive attribute accounted for the protective association.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that noncognitive life skills are associated with survival at older ages. Whether training and education programs could enhance these attributes and influence mortality risk is not known, but fostering and maintaining life skills may be important in later life.

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Mortality postponement and compression at older ages in human cohorts.

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Mortality postponement and compression at older ages in human cohorts.

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