Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study aimed to construct a more accurate model to forecast the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in mainland China from January 2008 to December 2019 and to provide a reference for the surveillance and early warning of HFMD.

Methods

We collected data on the incidence of HFMD in mainland China between January 2008 and December 2019. The SARIMA, SARIMA-BPNN, and SARIMA-PSO-BPNN hybrid models were used to predict the incidence of HFMD. The prediction performance was compared using the mean absolute error(MAE), mean squared error(MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation analysis.

Results

The incidence of HFMD in mainland China from January 2008 to December 2019 showed fluctuating downward t

SUBMITTER: Zhao D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10064964 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature