Dataset Information

Lack of association between vaccination rates and excess mortality in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

It has been claimed that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, a claim that contributes to vaccine hesitancy. We examined whether all-cause mortality has actually increased in Cyprus during the first two pandemic years, and whether any increases are associated with vaccination rates.

Methods

We calculated weekly excess mortality for Cyprus between January 2020 and June 2022, overall and by age group, using both a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM) adjusted for mean daily temperature, and the EuroMOMO algorithm. Excess deaths were regressed on the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and on weekly first-dose vaccinations, also using a DLNM to explore the lag-response dimension.

Results

552 excess deaths were observed in Cyprus during the study period (95% CI: 508-597) as opposed to 1306 confirmed COVID-19 deaths. No association between excess deaths and vaccination rates was found overall and for any age group except 18-49 years, among whom 1.09 excess deaths (95% CI: 0.27-1.91) per 10,000 vaccinations were estimated during the first 8 weeks post-vaccination. However, detailed cause-of-death examination identified just two such deaths potentially linked to vaccination, therefore this association is spurious and attributable to random error.

Conclusions

Excess mortality was moderately increased in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily as a result of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths. No relationship was found between vaccination rates and all-cause mortality, demonstrating the excellent safety profile of COVID-19 vaccines.

SUBMITTER: Lytras T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10066729 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Lack of association between vaccination rates and excess mortality in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lytras Theodore T Athanasiadou Maria M Demetriou Anna A Stylianou Despina D Heraclides Alexandros A Kalakouta Olga O

Vaccine 20230401 18

<h4>Background</h4>It has been claimed that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, a claim that contributes to vaccine hesitancy. We examined whether all-cause mortality has actually increased in Cyprus during the first two pandemic years, and whether any increases are associated with vaccination rates.<h4>Methods</h4>We calculated weekly excess mortality for Cyprus between January 2020 and June 2022, overall and by age group, using both a Distribu ...[more]

PMID: 37012116

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Project description:AimTo evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries.MethodsWe selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their "faster" or "slower" vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or "slower" category included all other countries. In the first or "faster" category, two groups, "boosters faster'' and "boosters slower" were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2.Results and discussionThe "faster" countries, as opposed to the "slower" ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the "faster" and "slower" categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the "slower" countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the "faster" countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population.ConclusionThus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in "slower" European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

Project description:Aim To evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries. Methods We selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their ″faster″ or ″slower″ vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or ″slower″ category included all other countries. In the first or ″faster″ category, two groups, ″boosters faster'' and ″boosters slower″ were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2. Results The ″faster″ countries, as opposed to the ″slower″ ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the ″faster″ and ″slower″ categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the ″slower″ countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the ″faster″ countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population. Thus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in ″slower″ European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

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Dataset Information

Lack of association between vaccination rates and excess mortality in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Lack of association between vaccination rates and excess mortality in Cyprus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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