Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

ABSTRACT: Climate change is increasing the frequency and the severity of extreme events in river basins around the world. Efforts to build resilience to these impacts are complicated by the social–ecological interactions, cross-scale feedbacks, and diverse actor interests that influence the dynamics of change in social–ecological systems (SESs). In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scena

SUBMITTER: Lazurko A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10066973 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature