Varying genesis and landfall locations for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warmer climate.

ABSTRACT: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most dangerous hazards that threaten U.S. coastlines. They can be particularly damaging when they occur in densely populated areas, such as the U.S. Northeast. Here, we investigate seasonal-scale variations in TC genesis and subsequent first landfall locations of > 37,000 synthetic TCs that impact the U.S. Northeast from the pre-industrial era (prior to 1800) through a very high emissions future (RCP8.5; 2080-2100). TC genesis in the Main Development Region decreases across all parts of the season from the pre-industrial to the future, with the greatest decreases in the proportion of genesis (up to 80.49%) occurring in the early and late seasons. Conversely, TC genesis in a region near the U.S. southeast coast increases across all parts of the season

SUBMITTER: Weaver MM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10073115 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature