Dataset Information

Developing a resiliency model for survival without major morbidity in preterm infants.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Develop and validate a resiliency score to predict survival and survival without neonatal morbidity in preterm neonates <32 weeks of gestation using machine learning.

Study design

Models using maternal, perinatal, and neonatal variables were developed using LASSO method in a population based Californian administrative dataset. Outcomes were survival and survival without severe neonatal morbidity. Discrimination was assessed in the derivation and an external dataset from a tertiary care center.

Results

Discrimination in the internal validation dataset was excellent with a c-statistic of 0.895 (95% CI 0.882-0.908) for survival and 0.867 (95% CI 0.857-0.877) for survival without severe neonatal morbidity, respectively. Discrimination remained high in the external validation dataset (c-statistic 0.817, CI 0.741-0.893 and 0.804, CI 0.770-0.837, respectively).

Conclusion

Our successfully predicts survival and survival without major morbidity in preterm babies born at <32 weeks. This score can be used to adjust for multiple variables across administrative datasets.

SUBMITTER: Steurer MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10079534 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Developing a resiliency model for survival without major morbidity in preterm infants.

Steurer Martina A MA Ryckman Kelli K KK Baer Rebecca J RJ Costello Jean J Oltman Scott P SP McCulloch Charles E CE Jelliffe-Pawlowski Laura L LL Rogers Elizabeth E EE

Journal of perinatology : official journal of the California Perinatal Association 20221011 4

<h4>Objective</h4>Develop and validate a resiliency score to predict survival and survival without neonatal morbidity in preterm neonates <32 weeks of gestation using machine learning.<h4>Study design</h4>Models using maternal, perinatal, and neonatal variables were developed using LASSO method in a population based Californian administrative dataset. Outcomes were survival and survival without severe neonatal morbidity. Discrimination was assessed in the derivation and an external dataset from ...[more]

PMID: 36220984

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Project description:ObjectiveTo analyze survival and morbidity among very preterm infants (VPIs) in Shenzhen and explore factors associated with survival without major morbidity.MethodsBetween January 2022 and December 2022, 797 infants were admitted to 25 neonatal intensive care units in Shenzhen with gestational age (GA) < 32 weeks, excluded discharged against medical advice, insufficient information, and congenital malformation, 742 VPIs were included. Comparison of maternal and neonate characteristics, morbidities, survival, and survival without major morbidities between groups used Mann Whitney U test and X2 test, multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze of risk factors of survival without major morbidities.ResultsThe median GA was 29.86 weeks (interquartile range [IQR], 28.0-31.04), and the median birth weight was 1,250 g (IQR, 900-1,500). Of the 797 VPIs, 721 (90.46%) survived, 53.52% (38 of 71) at 25 weeks' or less GA, 86.78% (105 of 121) at 26 to 27 weeks' GA, 91.34% (211 of 230) at 28 to 29 weeks' GA, 97.86% (367 of 375) at 30 to 31 weeks' GA. The incidences of the major morbidities were moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia,16.52% (113 of 671); severe intraventricular hemorrhage and/or periventricular leukomalacia, 2.49% (17 of 671); severe necrotizing enterocolitis, 2.63% (18 of 671); sepsis, 2.34% (16 of 671); and severe retinopathy of prematurity, 4.55% (27 of 593), 65.79% (450 of 671) survived without major morbidities. After adjustment for GA, birth weight, and 5-min Apgar score, antenatal steroid administration (OR = 2.397), antenatal magnesium sulfate administration (OR = 1.554) were the positivity factors to survival without major morbidity of VPIs, however, surfactant therapy (OR = 0.684,), and delivery room resuscitation (OR = 0.626) that were the negativity factors.ConclusionsThe present results indicate that survival and the incidence of survival without major morbidities increased with GA. Further, antenatal administration of steroids and magnesium sulfate, surfactant therapy, and delivery room resuscitation were pronounced determinants of survival without morbidities.

Project description:Objectives To evaluate the implementation of four high evidence practices for the care of very preterm infants to assess their use and impact in routine clinical practice and whether they constitute a driver for reducing mortality and neonatal morbidity.Design Prospective multinational population based observational study.Setting 19 regions from 11 European countries covering 850 000 annual births participating in the EPICE (Effective Perinatal Intensive Care in Europe for very preterm births) project.Participants 7336 infants born between 24+0 and 31+6 weeks' gestation in 2011/12 without serious congenital anomalies and surviving to neonatal admission.Main outcome measures Combined use of four evidence based practices for infants born before 28 weeks' gestation using an "all or none" approach: delivery in a maternity unit with appropriate level of neonatal care; administration of antenatal corticosteroids; prevention of hypothermia (temperature on admission to neonatal unit ≥36°C); surfactant used within two hours of birth or early nasal continuous positive airway pressure. Infant outcomes were in-hospital mortality, severe neonatal morbidity at discharge, and a composite measure of death or severe morbidity, or both. We modelled associations using risk ratios, with propensity score weighting to account for potential confounding bias. Analyses were adjusted for clustering within delivery hospital.Results Only 58.3% (n=4275) of infants received all evidence based practices for which they were eligible. Infants with low gestational age, growth restriction, low Apgar scores, and who were born on the day of maternal admission to hospital were less likely to receive evidence based care. After adjustment, evidence based care was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (risk ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.87) and in-hospital mortality or severe morbidity, or both (0.82, 0.73 to 0.92), corresponding to an estimated 18% decrease in all deaths without an increase in severe morbidity if these interventions had been provided to all infants.Conclusions More comprehensive use of evidence based practices in perinatal medicine could result in considerable gains for very preterm infants, in terms of increased survival without severe morbidity.

Project description:BackgroundWhile neonates with birth weight <10th percentile are at increased risk of morbidity and mortality, most of these are constitutionally small and not at increased risk. There are no current strategies that reliably distinguish constitutionally small neonates from small neonates at the highest risk of morbidity, so additional tools for risk stratification are needed.ObjectiveOur objectives were to identify factors that are independently associated with perinatal morbidity among neonates with birth weight <10th percentile (small for gestational age, SGA) and to create predictive models of perinatal morbidity among SGA neonates based on the timing of information availability.Study designThis secondary analysis of the Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-Be, was a nested case-control study. Participants were prospectively enrolled at eight U.S. centers, with data collection occurring at three standard time points during pregnancy and again after delivery. Our analysis included neonates with birth weights <10th percentile and excluded those with major congenital malformations or suspected or confirmed aneuploidy. The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal morbidity, defined as NICU admission >48 h, NEC, sepsis, RDS, mechanical ventilation, retinopathy of prematurity, seizures, grade 3 or 4 IVH, stillbirth, or death before discharge. Cases were SGA neonates that experienced the primary outcome, and controls were SGA neonates that did not. Maternal factors for potential inclusion in predictive modeling were drawn from a broad list of variables collected as part of the NuMoM2B study, including demographic, anthropometric, clinical, ultrasound, social/behavioral, dietary, and psychological variables. Characteristics that were different in bivariate analysis between cases and controls then underwent further evaluation and refinement. Continuous and multi-category variables were assessed using multiple approaches, including as continuous variables, using standard categories (such as for BMI) as well as empirically-derived cut-points identified by receiver-operating characteristics methodology. The approach for each variable that resulted in the best performance was selected for use in modeling. After variable optimization, multivariable analysis was used to derive prediction models using factors known at mid-pregnancy (Model 1) and delivery (Model 2).ResultsOf the original cohort, 865 were eligible and analyzed, with 134 (15.5%) experiencing the primary outcome. After bivariable and multivariable analysis, these variables were included in Model 1: BMI, stress level, diastolic blood pressure, narcotic use (all in 1st trimester), and uterine artery pulsatility index at 16-21 weeks. Model 2 added the following variables to Model 1: preterm delivery, preeclampsia, and suspected fetal growth restriction. When models 1 and 2 were empirically tested and compared to predicted performance to demonstrate calibration, observed morbidity rates approximately followed expected rates within deciles. Models 1 and 2 had respective areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.76) and 0.84 (0.80-0.88), to predict the composite morbidity.ConclusionUsing a deeply phenotyped cohort of nulliparous women, we created two models with the moderate-good prediction of perinatal morbidity among SGA neonates.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT01322529.

Project description:BackgroundGlutamine is a conditionally essential amino acid. Endogenous biosynthesis may be insufficient for tissue needs in states of metabolic stress. Evidence exists that glutamine supplementation improves clinical outcomes in critically ill adults. It has been suggested that glutamine supplementation may also benefit preterm infants.ObjectivesTo determine the effects of glutamine supplementation on mortality and morbidity in preterm infants.Search methodsWe used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. This included searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, 2015, Issue 12), MEDLINE, EMBASE and Maternity and Infant Care (to December 2015), conference proceedings and previous reviews.Selection criteriaRandomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compared glutamine supplementation versus no glutamine supplementation in preterm infants at any time from birth to discharge from hospital.Data collection and analysisWe extracted data using the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group, with separate evaluation of trial quality and data extraction by two review authors. We synthesised data using a fixed-effect model and reported typical relative risk, typical risk difference and weighted mean difference.Main resultsWe identified 12 randomised controlled trials in which a total of 2877 preterm infants participated. Six trials assessed enteral glutamine supplementation and six trials assessed parenteral glutamine supplementation. The trials were generally of good methodological quality. Meta-analysis did not find an effect of glutamine supplementation on mortality (typical relative risk 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.17; risk difference 0.00, 95% confidence interval -0.03 to 0.02) or major neonatal morbidities including the incidence of invasive infection or necrotising enterocolitis. Three trials that assessed neurodevelopmental outcomes in children aged 18 to 24 months and beyond did not find any effects.Authors' conclusionsThe available trial data do not provide evidence that glutamine supplementation confers important benefits for preterm infants.

Project description:BackgroundPublished guidelines on decision-making and resuscitation of extremely preterm infants primarily focus on high-income countries. For rapidly industrializing ones like China, there is a lack of population-based data for informing prenatal management and practice guidelines.MethodsThe Sino-northern Neonatal Network conducted a prospective multi-centre cohort study between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2021. Infants with a gestational age (GA) between 22 (postnatal age in days = 0) and 28 (postnatal age in days = 6) admitted to 40 tertiary NICUs in northern China were included and evaluated for death or severe neurological injury before discharge.ResultsFor all extremely preterm infants (n = 5838), the proportion of admission to the neonatal was 4.1% at 22-24 weeks, 27.2% at 25-26 weeks, and 75.2% at 27 and 28 weeks. Among 2228 infants admitted to the NICU, 216 (11.1%) were still elected for withdrawal of care (WIC) due to non-medical factors. Survival rates without severe neurological injury were 6.7% for infants at 22-23 weeks, 28.0% at 24 weeks, 56.7% at 24 weeks, 61.7% at 25 weeks, 79.9% at 26 weeks, and 84.5% at 27 and 28 weeks. Compared with traditional criterion at 28 weeks, the relative risk for death or severe neurological injury were 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.26-1.86) at 27 weeks, 2.32 (95% CI = 1.73-3.11) at 26 weeks, 3.62 (95% CI = 2.43-5.40) at 25 weeks, and 8.91 (95% CI = 4.69-16.96) at 24 weeks. The NICUs with higher proportion of WIC also had a higher rate of death or severe neurological injury after maximal intensive care (MIC).ConclusionsCompared to the traditional threshold of 28 weeks, more infants received MIC after 25 weeks, leading to significant increases in survival rates without severe neurological injury. Therefore, the resuscitation threshold should be gradually adjusted from 28 to 25 weeks based on reliable capacity.RegistrationChina Clinical Trials Registry. ID: ChiCTR1900025234.

Dataset Information

Developing a resiliency model for survival without major morbidity in preterm infants.

Objective

Study design

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Developing a resiliency model for survival without major morbidity in preterm infants.

Similar Datasets

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