How to Predict Drug Expenditure: A Markov Model Approach with Risk Classes.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although pharmaceutical expenditures have been rising for decades, the question of their drivers remains unclear, and long-term projections of pharmaceutical spending are still scarce. We use a Markov approach considering different cost-risk groups to show the possible range of future drug spending in Germany and illustrate the influence of various determinants on pharmaceutical expenditure.

Methods

We compute different medium and long-term projections of pharmaceutical expenditure in Germany up to 2060 and compare extrapolations with constant shares, time-to-death scenarios, and Markov modeling based on transition probabilities. Our modeling is based on data from a large statutory sickness fund covering around four million insureds. We divide the population into

SUBMITTER: Hofbauer-Milan V 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10085961 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature