A new method for the joint estimation of instantaneous reproductive number and serial interval during epidemics.

ABSTRACT: Although some methods for estimating the instantaneous reproductive number during epidemics have been developed, the existing frameworks usually require information on the distribution of the serial interval and/or additional contact tracing data. However, in the case of outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases with an unknown natural history or undetermined characteristics, the serial interval and/or contact tracing data are often not available, resulting in inaccurate estimates for this quantity. In the present study, a new framework was specifically designed for joint estimates of the instantaneous reproductive number and serial interval. Concretely, a likelihood function for the two quantities was first introduced. Then, the instantaneous reproductive number and the serial interval we

SUBMITTER: Dai C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10096265 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature