Drought, armed conflict and population mortality in Somalia, 2014-2018: A statistical analysis.

ABSTRACT: During 2010-2012, extreme food insecurity and famine in Somalia were estimated to account for 256,000 deaths. Since 2014 Somalia has experienced recurrent below-average rainfall, with consecutive failed rains in late 2016 and 2017 leading to large-scale drought, displacement and epidemics. We wished to estimate mortality across Somalia from 2014 to 2018, and measure the excess death toll attributable to the 2017-2018 drought-triggered crisis. We used a statistical approach akin to small-area estimation, and relying solely on existing data. We identified and re-analysed 91 household surveys conducted at the district level and estimating the crude (CDR) and under 5 years death rate (U5DR) over retrospective periods of 3-4 months. We captured datasets of candidate predictors of mortality with

SUBMITTER: Warsame A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10096495 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature