Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: Conceptual and statistical challenges.

ABSTRACT: The reproduction number R has been a central metric of the COVID-19 pandemic response, published weekly by the UK government and regularly reported in the media. Here, we provide a formal definition and discuss the advantages and most common misconceptions around this quantity. We consider the intuition behind different formulations of R , the complexities in its estimation (including the unavoidable lags involved), and its value compared to other indicators (e.g. the growth rate) that can be directly observed from aggregate surveillance data and react more promptly to changes in epidemic trend. As models become more sophisticated, with age and/or spatial structure, formulating R becomes increasingly complicated and inevitably model-dependent. We present some models currently used in the U

SUBMITTER: Pellis L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10100071 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature